TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
Bitcoin above ___ on October 23?
opinion
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above the price on October 23?

Total volume:
$1,460,106
Volume 24h:
$1,079,203
368%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$720,834N/A

80,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Oct 23, 12:11 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

80,000

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$284,281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

80,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

78,000

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$250,838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

78,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

76,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$88,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

76,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

74,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$63,575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

74,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

72,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36,370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

72,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

84,000

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$320,768
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

84,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82,000

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$151,627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

82,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$142,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

86,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,877
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

88,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,280
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

90,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,322
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

92,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $78,000 on October 23rd, as measured by the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Currently, the aggregated probability across Opinion and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on the ‘Close’ price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET on October 23rd. Keep an eye on trading volume and price action leading up to October 23rd, as the closing price of that candle will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on October 23rd as the resolution criteria.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 ET on October 23rd.
  • If the 'Close' price is strictly greater than the market's specified threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
  • Otherwise, the market resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to find a reliable alternative source for the BTC/USDT price, prioritizing other major exchanges. If a reliable alternative cannot be found, the market may be cancelled.
  • Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not fully form at 12:00 ET, the most recent completed candle prior to 12:00 ET will be used for resolution.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as the 1-minute candle closes at or after 12:00 ET on October 23rd, and the 'Close' price is confirmed on Binance.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this market tracks predictions about the Bitcoin price on October 23. Currently, there's strong consensus, with Polymarket showing a 100% chance for the price being above $72,000. The aggregated volume across both platforms is $1,460,106, with $1,079,321 traded in the last 24 hours. This dashboard provides a combined view of these predictions, allowing you to see how the collective wisdom of these prediction markets assesses the likelihood of different outcomes for the Bitcoin price on October 23. The overall market suggests a very bullish outlook, though individual platform dynamics can influence pricing.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more nuanced view of future price movements than traditional spot price expectations. Spot prices represent the current market value, while prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions about future events. The implied probability from this market, combined with the total volume of $1,460,106, can offer insight into how traders perceive the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a certain price point. This differs from simple speculation, as traders have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to provide accurate forecasts, potentially leading to more informed price discovery.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Opinion for this market can arise from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets. Polymarket may have a higher concentration of sophisticated traders, while Opinion might include more casual participants. Furthermore, the liquidity and trading volume on each platform can impact price discovery. Even slight differences in market design or user interface can lead to divergent opinions and, consequently, differing prices for the same event – in this case, the Bitcoin price on October 23. These factors contribute to a nuanced view of the potential outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Bitcoin regulation, adoption by institutional investors, or macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rate changes could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as hacks or security breaches, could also create volatility. Furthermore, technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price chart and on-chain metrics may drive trading activity. Any significant shift in these areas could lead to substantial changes in the odds offered in this market, potentially creating new opportunities for informed traders.