TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.8b
24H VOL:
$153,964,051
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,815,744,871
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,809,858,743
498,684
Markets across
37,244
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,831
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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80,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
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Related News
Closed: Oct 22, 12:12 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $76,000 on October 22nd. Currently, the aggregated probability across Opinion and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on the 12:00 PM Eastern Time closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, as reported by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. Keep an eye on trading volume and price action leading up to October 22nd, as this will be the final day for betting and the event window for determining the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms utilize the same source (Binance BTC/USDT) and resolution time (12:00 ET on October 22nd) to determine if Bitcoin's price exceeds a given threshold.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution depends on the closing price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance at 12:00 ET on October 22nd.
- A market resolves to 'Yes' if the closing price is strictly above the specified threshold; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the specified resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to find a reliable alternative source, prioritizing other major exchanges with high liquidity. If a suitable alternative cannot be found, the market may be cancelled.
- Candle Formation: The 1-minute candle must fully form at 12:00 ET on October 22nd for the resolution to be valid. If a candle does not form due to technical issues, PredictionHero will use the closest available valid candle.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Opinion for this market can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and risk appetite, which can influence how traders price the same event. Different levels of liquidity on each platform can also contribute to price variations. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on Polymarket and Opinion might attract different types of traders, leading to differing opinions on the Bitcoin price on October 22. These factors combine to create potentially different probabilities for the same outcome across the two venues.
