TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.3b
24H VOL:
$160,757,820
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,798,566,680
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,796,460,506
516,586
Markets across
38,144
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,845
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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80,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Related News
Closed: Oct 16, 12:12 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $80,000 on October 16th. Currently, the aggregated probability across Opinion and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this occurring, based on data from Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). All markets resolve based on the closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance at noon ET on October 16th. Keep an eye on the price action leading up to October 16th, 2026, as this date represents the end of the betting period and the time at which the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle will be evaluated.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets use the same resolution source (Binance BTC/USDT) and time (12:00 ET on October 16th) to determine if Bitcoin's price exceeds a given threshold.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 ET on October 16th.
- If the 'Close' price is strictly greater than the specified threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
- Otherwise, the market resolves to 'No'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to find a reliable alternative source for BTC/USDT price data. If a suitable alternative cannot be found, the market may be cancelled.
- Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not form precisely at 12:00 ET, the candle that *closes* closest to 12:00 ET will be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Bitcoin regulation, adoption by institutional investors, or technological developments could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected macroeconomic events, such as shifts in interest rates or inflation data, could also affect the price of Bitcoin and, consequently, this market. Furthermore, significant security breaches or hacks involving Bitcoin exchanges could create downward pressure, while positive developments in the cryptocurrency space could drive prices higher. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market.
