TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.5b
24H VOL:
$251,268,536
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,817,056,367
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,864,438,999
455,542
Markets across
34,846
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,830
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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80,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Related News
Closed: Oct 14, 12:11 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $76,000 on October 14th. Currently, the aggregated probability across Opinion and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on the 12:00 PM ET closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance, as determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. Keep an eye on trading volume and price action leading up to October 14th, as this will be the final day for betting and the determining factor for market settlement.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets share identical resolution criteria based on the Binance BTC/USDT price at a specific time.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 PM ET on October 14th.
- A market resolves to 'Yes' if the closing price is strictly greater than the specified threshold.
- A market resolves to 'No' if the closing price is less than or equal to the specified threshold.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to source data from a reliable archive or alternative exchange with high correlation to Binance. If no reliable data is available, the market may be cancelled.
- Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not fully form at 12:00 PM ET, the most recent complete candle prior to that time will be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective on future events. They can be compared to implied volatility derived from options markets or forward-looking estimates from financial analysts. However, prediction markets offer a unique advantage: participants put real capital at risk based on their beliefs, potentially providing a more accurate signal than surveys or forecasts. The current pricing suggests a degree of uncertainty surrounding the Bitcoin price on October 14, as reflected in the volume of $1,086,309.
