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Bitcoin above ___ on November 5?
opinion
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above the price on November 5?

Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$37,654
Volume 24h:
$6,649
48%
Liquidity:
$220,853
20%
Open interest:
$29,087N/A

72,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:14h:34m

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 5?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

72,000

Trade
95%
1%
Yes 96¢No 6¢
2¢
$19,510
$4,598
29%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

72,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
95%
Yes 96¢No 6¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

74,000

Trade
86%
4%
Yes 87.7¢No 15.3¢
3¢
$19,813
$5,893
17%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

74,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
86.2%
Yes 87.7¢No 15.3¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

76,000

Trade
65%
12%
Yes 65¢No 36¢
1¢
$21,583
$3,447
40%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

76,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
64.5%
Yes 65¢No 36¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

78,000

Trade
36%
21%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$20,984
$2,195
52%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

78,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
35.5%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

80,000

Trade
14%
18%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
$24,269
$16,342
6%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

80,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
14.5%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

82,000

Trade
5%
10%
Yes 5.7¢No 96.2¢
1.9¢
$19,061
$2,364
343%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

82,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.8%
Yes 5.7¢No 96.2¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 1.9¢
polymarket

84,000

Trade
2%
3%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢
0.1¢
$19,737
$642
79%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

84,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.6%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

90,000

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
1.2¢
$19,166
$238
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

90,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.9%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 1.2¢
polymarket

88,000

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.7¢
0.9¢
$18,596
$532
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

88,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
polymarket

92,000

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$18,876
$515
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

92,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.7%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

86,000

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.6¢
0.2¢
$19,261
$886
6%
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
opinion

86,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 14h 34m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
Total markets: 22

Description

This group of markets asks whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed specified thresholds on November 5th. All markets rely on the closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time. The questions vary only by the price threshold being tested.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets use the same source (Binance BTC/USDT) and resolution time (12:00 PM ET on November 5th) to determine if Bitcoin's price exceeds a specified threshold.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution depends on the closing price of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at 12:00 PM ET on November 5th.
  • If the closing price is above the specified threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Outage: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to use a reasonable backup source, prioritizing other major exchanges. If no reliable data is available, the market may be cancelled.
  • Candle Formation: If a 1-minute candle does not fully form at 12:00 PM ET, the final closing price of the closest preceding candle will be used.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as the 12:00 PM ET Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes on November 5th, or shortly thereafter pending data availability.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this market tracks predictions on whether the Bitcoin price will be above a certain threshold on November 5. The dashboard aggregates data from both platforms to provide a consensus view of the probability of this outcome. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $37,654, with $7,678 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see how sentiment is evolving and compare the price discovery process across different prediction market venues. The Polymarket currently favors a specific outcome, while Opinion presents a slightly different perspective.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more nuanced view of future events than traditional spot price expectations. Spot prices represent the current cost of Bitcoin, while this market aggregates informed speculation about its value on a specific future date. The implied probability from this market can be seen as a weighted average of many individual forecasts, potentially incorporating insights not readily available in standard financial analysis. A significant difference between the implied probability and spot price expectations could signal a market inefficiency or a strong conviction among traders.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Opinion for the Bitcoin price market can arise from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, influencing their trading decisions. The liquidity available on each platform—currently $37,654 overall—also plays a role, as lower liquidity can lead to greater price volatility. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for price discovery, such as the types of orders allowed or the fee structures, may differ between Polymarket and Opinion, contributing to these observed discrepancies.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bitcoin price at a specified time on November 5, as determined by a widely recognized and reliable data source. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of whether the Bitcoin price met the conditions defined within this market. Traders should review the platform's documentation for details on the specific data source used for verification.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major news regarding Bitcoin regulation, adoption by institutional investors, or macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rate changes could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected security breaches or advancements in blockchain technology could also play a role. Furthermore, significant movements in other cryptocurrencies or traditional financial markets could create ripple effects that affect the Bitcoin price, and therefore, the probabilities reflected in this market.