TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
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Will Bitcoin be above the price on November 4?
70,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:18h:23m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 4?
$
Description
This group of markets asks whether the price of Bitcoin, as measured on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair, will exceed various price thresholds at a specific time on November 4th. Each market focuses on a different price point, ranging from $70,000 to $90,000.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on November 4th as the resolution criteria.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the closing price of the 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at 12:00 ET on November 4th.
- If the closing price is strictly above the target price in the market question, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
- Otherwise, the market resolves to 'No'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, the markets will likely be paused and resolved based on the first available data point after service restoration. This could introduce some ambiguity.
- Candle Formation: The resolution depends on a single 1-minute candle. Unusual trading activity or manipulation within that specific minute could influence the outcome.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective on future events. Unlike traditional futures contracts, these markets allow anyone to participate, potentially incorporating a broader range of information and viewpoints. The implied probability derived from the trading volume can be compared to the expectations priced into Bitcoin futures or options, revealing whether traders believe there’s an edge to be found. Discrepancies can arise from differing risk appetites, information access, or beliefs about market manipulation, making this market a valuable tool for assessing overall sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely-recognized and publicly available source for the Bitcoin price on November 4. The final price will be determined by a trusted and impartial assessment of the data, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome for all participants. This process aims to provide a clear and definitive answer to the question of whether the Bitcoin price exceeds a certain threshold on that date.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as inflation data or interest rate decisions, often influence Bitcoin's price. Regulatory developments, including potential approvals or restrictions on Bitcoin ETFs or exchanges, could also cause substantial price swings. Unexpected geopolitical events or significant news regarding the adoption of Bitcoin by institutions or corporations could further move the market. Finally, large-scale movements in other cryptocurrencies or broader market sentiment could indirectly affect the price of Bitcoin and, consequently, the trading activity in this market.
