TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
predict

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Volume:
$4,444

Xiaomi

 - Predict

Xiaomi - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 31, 2026

Closed: Oct 31, 3:26 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Xiaomi

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$1,079
$2,782
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Moonshot

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$23,252
$1,048
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$13,955
$612
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

DeepSeek

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1,978
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Baidu

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,978
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Z.ai

View
N/A
N/A
—
$25,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

ByteDance

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,978
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

MiniMax

View
N/A
N/A
—
$2,810
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Meituan

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Tencent

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

StepFun

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,978
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the Chinese AI company market tracks the implied probabilities of different companies being identified as the leading Chinese AI firm. You’ll find the current odds for each potential outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $628, and the total market volume, which is $4,444. This information allows you to monitor market sentiment and trading activity related to this specific question.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict often reflects a different perspective than individual expert opinions. While analysts may favor established tech giants, this market allows for a more nuanced assessment, potentially identifying emerging players with disruptive potential. The question is: which Chinese AI company will be considered the best at the end of October 2026, and the current trading suggests a different answer than many public predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular outcome, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the likelihood of that outcome occurring. Higher demand for a contract drives up its price, indicating greater confidence in that outcome, while increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of which company has the “best” Chinese AI model will be based on publicly available information, such as benchmark performance on industry-standard AI tests, independent evaluations by reputable research firms, and overall market impact. The resolution will not rely on subjective opinions but on objective evidence demonstrating leadership in the field of Chinese artificial intelligence.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major breakthroughs in AI technology from any of the leading Chinese companies, such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, or ByteDance, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Significant government policy changes related to AI development and regulation in China could also be a catalyst. Furthermore, key personnel changes within these companies, major funding rounds, or the release of groundbreaking new AI products could all influence trading activity and move this market. Unexpected geopolitical events impacting technology trade could also play a role.