TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.2b

24H VOL:

$139,262,101

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,770,072,055

512,063

Markets across

38,451

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,850

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Best AI model on October 19?
polymarket

Best AI model on October 19?

Volume:
$37,544

gemini-4-argon-high

 - Polymarket

gemini-4-argon-high - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

gemini-4-argon-high

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Other

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-fable-5.1-max

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-5.5-high

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI model performance market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are assessing the likelihood of different AI models being considered 'best' as of October 19. The 24-hour volume indicates how much trading activity has occurred recently, providing insight into current interest. Total volume for this market is also displayed, showing the overall amount of capital allocated to predictions. Currently, the volume is $2,761 with a total volume of $37,544.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. In this case, the market represents a weighted average of many individuals' beliefs about which AI model will perform best. While analyst reports offer focused insights, this market incorporates a broader range of perspectives and potentially more up-to-date information. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates developments that analysts haven't yet fully considered, or vice versa, indicating potential biases in either approach.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain responsive to the latest developments and insights regarding AI model performance.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of which AI model is considered 'best' will be based on publicly available benchmarks and evaluations released around October 19. The specifics of what constitutes 'best' will be determined by the prevailing consensus within the AI community as reflected in these reports. Resolution will be based on the most widely accepted and objective assessment of model performance.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements regarding new AI model capabilities, benchmark results from reputable organizations, or unexpected performance issues with leading models could all influence trading activity. Positive or negative press coverage, influential analyst reports, and even significant updates to training datasets could also shift market sentiment. Any information that alters perceptions of the relative strengths and weaknesses of different AI models is likely to impact the odds in this market.