TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Dec 30, 2025, 3:34 PM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,053,242
Volume 24h:
$193
97%
Liquidity:
$538,600
3%
Open interest:
$164,210N/A

$500M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?

42%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 42¢ buys you 238 shares | Odds: 42% Total Payout: $238 | Net Profit: $138 Multiplier: 2.38x | ROI: 138% | APY: 107% 433 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$500M

Trade
42%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
$23,057
$53,245
0.01%
0.49%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$500M

Trade
37%
1%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
$22,948
$90,588
0%
37%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
38.7%
Yes 39.5¢No 61.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

$2B

Trade
38%
Yes 39¢No 63¢
2¢
$26,682
$298,844
0.01%
0.46%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$2B

Trade
34%
Yes 36.1¢No 68¢
4.1¢
$47,845
$62,629
0.22%
0.71%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
37.3%
Yes 37.6¢No 65.5¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 4.1¢
polymarket

$1B

Trade
38%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$24,539
$14,872
0%
0.96%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$1B

Trade
36%
Yes 38¢No 67¢
5¢
$3,247
$16,017
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
36.7%
Yes 38¢No 65¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

$3B

Trade
37%
1%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
$2,258
$933
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$3B

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
36.5%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
Avg: 13¢Max: 25¢
polymarket

$4B

Trade
36%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$23,684
$82,932
0%
0.86%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$4B

Trade
30%
Yes 50.5¢No 90.3¢
40.8¢
$47,309
$3
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
35.5%
Yes 43.3¢No 77.6¢
Avg: 20.9¢Max: 40.8¢
polymarket

$5B

Trade
28%
1%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
$18,546
$8,356
0.24%
2%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$5B

Trade
N/A
N/A
41¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
27.5%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
Avg: 21¢Max: 41¢
predict

$6B

Trade
28%
Yes 30.4¢No 75.1¢
5.5¢
$43,878
$1,799
0%
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$6B

Trade
27%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
$24,745
$135,215
0%
0.77%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
26.5%
Yes 28.7¢No 74.6¢
Avg: 3.3¢Max: 5.5¢
polymarket

$8B

Trade
19%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
$23,007
$93,715
0%
0.98%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$8B

Trade
13%
Yes 16.1¢No 89.9¢
6¢
$51,433
$6,187
0%
8%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18.2%
Yes 17.5¢No 85.9¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

$12B

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$20,502
$120,626
0%
0.38%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$12B

Trade
12%
Yes 14.8¢No 90¢
4.8¢
$52,402
$3,780
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16.4%
Yes 15.9¢No 87¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 4.8¢
predict

$10B

Trade
16%
Yes 19.2¢No 86.5¢
5.7¢
$63,564
$367
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$10B

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
$18,953
$63,133
0%
0.01%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15.5%
Yes 17.6¢No 85.8¢
Avg: 3.4¢Max: 5.7¢
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Base’s governance token will exceed $500M one day after its public launch. Currently, the consensus probability of this outcome is 42.0%, while the probability of Base FDV exceeding $1B one day after launch is 38.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Predict, and will resolve based on the most liquid price source available. All markets will resolve to No if Base fails to launch a token by December 31, 2027, so keep a close eye on Base’s launch plans as that date approaches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria for FDV thresholds one day after launchPrimary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price
  • Launch defined as when token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable
  • Resolution time is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
  • No-launch scenario resolves all markets to No by December 31, 2027 deadline

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Launch: If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, all markets resolve to No
  • Liquidity Failure: If no liquid price source exists at resolution time, markets may require manual audit to determine most representative price
Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launchOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The Base FDV market dashboard aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of Base's fully diluted valuation surpassing a set threshold one day after its launch. It displays combined volume of $1,053,242 and 24-hour volume of $191, offering a consensus view of market sentiment toward this crypto event.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment about Base's potential growth, priced at 41.5% probability. These odds often differ from spot price trends because prediction markets incorporate forward-looking expectations and market sentiment, not just current valuations. The gap can widen when investor confidence shifts rapidly. Traders watch both real-time price action and the probability curve here to spot mispricings. Higher odds typically signal optimism about exceeding the threshold, while lower odds suggest caution. Monitoring this divergence helps anticipate shifts in market mood before they appear in spot prices.

On Polymarket, this market shows a probability of 41.5%, while Predict leans toward a different outcome. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Market structure differences drive this spread: liquidity depth, user base behavior, and fee models all shape pricing. For example, Polymarket may attract larger institutional traders, pushing its odds toward Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?, whereas Predict’s smaller, more retail-focused user group could favor Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?. The resulting 4.5 point spread reflects these platform-specific dynamics until market consensus converges.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final value will be determined by measuring Base's fully diluted valuation one day after its official launch date, against the stated threshold.

Key signals include Base’s official launch metrics, on-chain transaction volume spikes, and major project announcements that boost or dampen investor confidence. Media coverage of Base’s adoption rate, regulatory updates, or competing layer-2 network performance can also shift probabilities. Whale wallet activity and funding rounds for Base-related startups often create short-term volatility. As Jan 1, 2028 approaches, real-time FDV measurements will dominate, with any surprise surge or dip instantly reflected in this market’s odds. Traders should watch for these catalysts to time entries and exits effectively.