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417,059

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Bank of Brazil decision in November?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Aug 4, 2026, 6:32 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 6:59 AM EST
Total volume:
$133,135
Volume 24h:
$23,207N/A
Liquidity:
$16,196
28%
Open interest:
$23,449N/A

No Change

 - Polymarket

No Change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:11h:52m

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?

84%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 84.5¢ buys you 118 shares | Odds: 84% Total Payout: $118 | Net Profit: $18 Multiplier: 1.18x | ROI: 18% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No Change

Trade
84%
2%
Yes 84.5¢No 16.7¢
1.2¢
$1,234
$36,910
6%
23%
N/A
1d 11h 52m
Active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
$2,455
$49,273
4%
23%
N/A
1d 11h 52m
Active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 98.8¢
1¢
$1,014
$16,550
8%
16%
N/A
1d 11h 52m
Active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$5,769
$16,671
0%
58%
N/A
1d 11h 52m
Active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$5,724
$13,732
8%
49%
N/A
1d 11h 52m
Active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bank of Brazil decision tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the Selic rate at the November meeting. You'll find the probability of a rate decrease, increase, or remaining unchanged, along with the total volume traded—currently $133,135—and the 24-hour volume, which is $7,043. This allows you to monitor market sentiment and trading activity surrounding this important economic event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different scenarios for the Bank of Brazil’s monetary policy.

Currently, prediction market participants are pricing in a significant probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Brazil. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which are more divided on whether the central bank will maintain its current stance or opt for a more cautious approach. It’s important to note that prediction markets represent a collective forecast based on a diverse range of information and perspectives, while analyst forecasts are typically individual opinions. This market offers a different lens through which to view expectations for the Bank of Brazil’s upcoming decision.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Currently, the most likely outcome—a 25 bps decrease in the Selic rate—has a probability of 83.9% according to traders on Polymarket. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of conviction behind these probabilities, offering insight into how the collective wisdom of traders is assessing the Bank of Brazil’s potential actions.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bank of Brazil’s decision regarding the Selic rate is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement made by the Bank of Brazil following their November meeting. The market will determine whether the central bank decreased the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps, increased it, or maintained the current rate, based on the official communication released by the Bank of Brazil.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Nov 4, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from Brazil, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, could shift expectations regarding the Bank of Brazil’s monetary policy. Statements from key policymakers at the central bank could also provide clues about their intentions. Furthermore, global economic developments and shifts in risk sentiment could impact the Brazilian real and influence the Bank of Brazil’s decision-making process. Any news that alters perceptions of the Brazilian economy’s health is likely to move this market.