TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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August Unemployment Rate
predict

August Unemployment Rate

Volume:
$13

4.3%

 - Predict

4.3% - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 8:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

4.3%

View
100%
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢
—
$29,608
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

≥4.6%

View
7%
93%
Yes 7¢No 93¢
—
$1
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

≤3.8%

View
N/A
N/A
—
$29,796
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

3.9%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

4.0%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

4.1%

View
N/A
N/A
99.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

4.2%

View
N/A
N/A
—
$29,810
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

4.4%

View
N/A
N/A
—
$29,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

4.5%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the August unemployment rate market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $1. It shows how traders on Predict are pricing the likelihood of different unemployment rate outcomes for August, reflecting market sentiment and expectations based on current economic data and forecasts. The page updates continuously to display the latest market movements and trading activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of economic conditions. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of data and models, traders in this market react quickly to new economic releases, political developments, and shifts in investor confidence. As a result, odds here can diverge from or align with consensus forecasts, depending on recent trends and unexpected news that influence market participants' expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official government data is released and verified against credible public sources. The final unemployment rate figure for August will be drawn from authoritative labor statistics, and the market will settle based on that verified number. Timing depends on the official publication schedule, and traders should monitor announcements from relevant statistical agencies.

Key signals that could shift this market include upcoming employment reports, revisions to previous months’ data, major economic policy announcements, and shifts in consumer or business confidence surveys. Unexpected geopolitical events, changes in federal reserve policy, or significant disruptions in labor markets can also cause rapid movements. Traders will watch these indicators closely as they could alter expectations for the August unemployment rate before resolution.