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402,751

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August Inflation China - Annual
polymarket

August Inflation China - Annual

Volume:
$42,061

0.7% - 0.8%

 - Polymarket

0.7% - 0.8% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 6:32 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.7% - 0.8%

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,902
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.5% - 0.6%

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.9%+

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,836
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.3% - 0.4%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤0.2%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,956
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Polymarket

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the China August inflation market. It shows how traders price expectations for inflation in China during August, with updates reflecting market sentiment and recent economic data. The interface displays current top-outcome chances and volume of $42,061, helping users monitor activity and trends as the market evolves toward its resolution date.

Currently, this market’s implied probability reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean on official reports and economic models, traders on Polymarket incorporate a wider range of signals — from supply-chain updates to consumer spending trends — which can shift the odds more quickly. The gap between these two views often narrows as the resolution date approaches, but for now, this market offers a distinct, community-driven perspective on inflation expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final inflation figure for August will be drawn from official Chinese statistical releases, and the market will close when that data is publicly available and unambiguous. Timing depends on when the authoritative source announces the result, typically shortly after the reporting period ends.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key catalysts include early inflation data releases from Chinese industrial or consumer sectors, comments from central bank officials on monetary policy, and unexpected shifts in global commodity prices that affect import costs. Domestic demand trends, trade balance updates, and any sudden policy changes also influence trader sentiment. As these events unfold, the odds on Polymarket will respond quickly, often moving in tandem with news cycles and market reaction.