TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 4:23 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for Apple’s stock price at the end of the week of September 21. These odds represent what traders believe will happen, based on their own analysis and information. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are typically based on financial modeling and company reports. It's important to note that the wisdom of the crowd, as expressed in this market, can sometimes diverge from, or align with, expert opinions depending on available information and market sentiment. The question is whether traders’ insights will prove more accurate than conventional analysis.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the Apple stock price. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular price range is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, creating a real-time forecast for Apple’s stock performance.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the closing price of Apple (AAPL) stock for the week of September 21 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official closing price reported by a major financial exchange. Traders who correctly predicted the closing price range will receive a payout proportional to their wager and the market’s odds at the time of their trade. This provides a clear and objective outcome for this prediction market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major company announcements from Apple, such as new product releases or earnings reports, would likely cause substantial price movement. Broader economic news, including inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also impact investor sentiment and affect the stock price. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in market trends could also play a role. Any news that alters perceptions of Apple’s future performance has the potential to shift the odds in this market.