TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 11:01 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Apple (AAPL) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Apple (AAPL) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants believe there is a chance that the Apple stock market will meet the specified condition. This contrasts with typical analyst forecasts, which often rely on financial modeling and company reports. While analysts provide detailed reports and price targets, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals willing to put their money behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates factors not fully captured in traditional analysis, or where differing risk appetites come into play.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy 'yes' shares if they believe the stock will be above the target price, and 'no' shares if they believe it will not. As more people buy 'yes' shares, the price of those shares increases, and the implied probability of that outcome rises. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information and opinions emerge. This dynamic pricing ensures the market stays responsive to evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing stock price of Apple (AAPL) on that date. If the stock price is above the specified level at market close, the 'yes' shares will pay out. If it is at or below that level, the 'no' shares will pay out. The exact price used for resolution will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements from Apple regarding new products, earnings reports, or changes in leadership are likely to cause price swings. Broader economic trends, such as interest rate changes or shifts in investor sentiment towards technology stocks, could also play a role. Unexpected news events impacting Apple’s supply chain or key markets could also move the market. Any significant development affecting Apple’s perceived future performance has the potential to shift the odds in either direction.
