TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
September 30
- Polymarket
September 30 - Polymarket
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Closed: Sep 1, 5:02 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic resets Claude subscription usage limits by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying reset is a one-time, manually initiated action by Anthropic that, before the normal reset schedule, zeroes or refills both the 5-hour and weekly usage counters for all Claude subscription users across all models. Normal scheduled resets, resets limited to certain users or models, temporary limit increases or additional usage that do not refill existing counters, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of Anthropic API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. An official announcement stating that Anthropic has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will qualify if published within the market's timeframe, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official Anthropic accounts such as ClaudeDevs, for example: https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2077603834453770467. The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Anthropic, including those published by @AnthropicAI, @ClaudeDevs, or any other Anthropic-operated account on X. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic resets Claude subscription usage limits by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying reset is a one-time, manually initiated action by Anthropic that, before the normal reset schedule, zeroes or refills both the 5-hour and weekly usage counters for all Claude subscription users across all models. Normal scheduled resets, resets limited to certain users or models, temporary limit increases or additional usage that do not refill existing counters, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of Anthropic API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. An official announcement stating that Anthropic has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will qualify if published within the market's timeframe, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official Anthropic accounts such as ClaudeDevs, for example: https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2077603834453770467. The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Anthropic, including those published by @AnthropicAI, @ClaudeDevs, or any other Anthropic-operated account on X. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will look for an official announcement or documented change to Claude’s usage limits — any confirmed reset by that date triggers a payout. If no reset occurs, the opposite contract settles, closing the market based on publicly observable evidence.
Several signals could shift this market before it resolves on Oct 1, 2026. Announcements from Anthropic regarding product updates, new features, or policy changes impacting usage limits may cause rapid price swings. Market sentiment could also be influenced by competitor actions, broader AI industry trends, or regulatory developments affecting large language models. Any data indicating changes in user adoption rates or system performance would likely be closely watched by traders. As Oct 1, 2026 approaches, the market will become more sensitive to near-term news, with each update potentially reshaping expectations about the exact reset level.