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Science and Technology
Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on October 5?
polymarket

Will Amazon close above its price on October 5?

Volume:
$3,568

$245

 - Polymarket

$245 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 4:16 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$245

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$240

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$250

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$260

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,327
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$255

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Amazon stock price market tracks the current implied probability of the stock closing above a certain price on October 5. You'll find a real-time view of the trading activity, including the current price, 24-hour volume of $1,065, and total volume traded of $3,488. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing this outcome, offering insights into market sentiment. This allows users to monitor the market's dynamics and potential shifts in expectations surrounding Amazon’s stock performance.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. These odds can be compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding Amazon's stock price, which often rely on financial modeling and company reports. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can highlight differing perspectives on Amazon’s future performance, potentially revealing insights overlooked by conventional analysis. It's important to note that prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions, while analyst forecasts typically represent the views of a single firm or individual.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of Amazon closing above the specified price on October 5. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market efficiently incorporates new information and changing expectations regarding Amazon’s stock performance, making it a valuable indicator of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Amazon (AMZN) stock on October 5 will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of the affirmative (closing above the specified price) or the negative. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a recognized financial exchange, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market leading up to Oct 5, 2026. Major company announcements from Amazon, such as earnings reports or new product launches, could trigger substantial price movements. Broader economic indicators, like inflation data or interest rate decisions, can also influence investor sentiment towards Amazon and its stock. Unexpected news events, such as regulatory changes or significant shifts in consumer spending, could also play a role in shaping the market's trajectory. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds.