TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.2b

24H VOL:

$139,262,101

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,770,072,055

512,063

Markets across

38,451

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,850

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Alphabet’s Market Cap end of October 2026?
polymarket

Alphabet’s Market Cap end of October 2026?

Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$41,035
Volume 24h:
$927
7%
Liquidity:
$4,709
32%
Open interest:
$5,233N/A

$3.50-$4.00T

 - Polymarket

$3.50-$4.00T - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 08d:06h:07m

Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of October 2026?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 51.3¢ buys you 195 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $195 | Net Profit: $95 Multiplier: 1.95x | ROI: 95% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 8 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$3.50-$4.00T

Trade
49%
6%
Yes 51.3¢No 54.1¢
5.4¢
$887
$10,233
6%
247%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
polymarket

$4.00-$4.50T

42%
5%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
$678
$14,233
0.36%
29%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
polymarket

$4.50-$5.00T

5%
1%
Yes 7.9¢No 97.4¢
5.3¢
$555
$11,940
0.04%
47%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
polymarket

<$3.50T

3%
2%
Yes 6¢No 99.2¢
5.2¢
$400
$1,073
6%
302%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
polymarket

$5.00-$5.50T

1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$475
$1,043
0%
101%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
polymarket

$5.50-$6.00T

1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$839
$1,846
15%
87%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
polymarket

$6.00T+

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$874
$667
0%
53%
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market implies a very high probability of Alphabet’s market cap falling within a specific range by the end of October 2026. That outlook aligns closely with many analyst forecasts, which also emphasize Alphabet’s dominant position in digital advertising and cloud computing. However, prediction markets can shift quickly based on earnings reports, macroeconomics, or regulatory news — making this market a dynamic barometer of near-term investor sentiment.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously update the probability of each possible outcome based on their expectations of Alphabet’s future performance. The current top outcome holds a chance of 48.6%, reflecting widespread confidence in the company’s ability to maintain or grow its market value over the next two years. Volume of $41,035 supports these price discoveries.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, Alphabet’s market capitalization as of the final trading day in October 2026 will be compared against the stated ranges to determine which outcome is correct. No complex calculations or special data feeds are required — just publicly available market data.

Key events that could shift this market include Alphabet’s quarterly earnings releases, major product launches, regulatory developments in AI or antitrust law, and broader economic shifts affecting tech valuations. Unexpected leadership changes or large-scale M&A activity could also influence trader sentiment. As Oct 31, 2026 approaches, any news that alters expectations for Alphabet’s revenue growth or profit margins will likely cause rapid price adjustments.