TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.2b
24H VOL:
$139,262,101
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,798,566,680
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,770,072,055
512,063
Markets across
38,451
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,850
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
$3.50-$4.00T
- Polymarket
$3.50-$4.00T - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
Time left: 08d:06h:07m
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This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
This market will resolve according to Alphabet's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously update the probability of each possible outcome based on their expectations of Alphabet’s future performance. The current top outcome holds a chance of 48.6%, reflecting widespread confidence in the company’s ability to maintain or grow its market value over the next two years. Volume of $41,035 supports these price discoveries.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, Alphabet’s market capitalization as of the final trading day in October 2026 will be compared against the stated ranges to determine which outcome is correct. No complex calculations or special data feeds are required — just publicly available market data.
Key events that could shift this market include Alphabet’s quarterly earnings releases, major product launches, regulatory developments in AI or antitrust law, and broader economic shifts affecting tech valuations. Unexpected leadership changes or large-scale M&A activity could also influence trader sentiment. As Oct 31, 2026 approaches, any news that alters expectations for Alphabet’s revenue growth or profit margins will likely cause rapid price adjustments.