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Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$268

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

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·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 6:26 PM EST

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Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on October 12?

View
0%
94%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$268
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on October 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on October 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Airbnb stock market tracks the current odds of the stock closing up or down on October 12. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $268. Total volume for this market is $268. This allows traders to see how much activity there is and gauge market sentiment. The dashboard provides a clear visual representation of where the crowd believes Airbnb’s stock price is headed.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for Airbnb. While some analysts predict moderate growth, this market indicates a more uncertain outlook, with traders assigning probabilities to both upward and downward movements. It’s important to remember that analysts base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, while this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and risk assessments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Airbnb’s stock will close higher or lower on October 12. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of each outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their positions, creating a real-time assessment of potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Airbnb stock on October 12 will be used to determine whether the market settles in the 'Up' or 'Down' category. The closing price will be sourced from a major stock exchange and will be publicly available. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of the market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could impact overall market sentiment and affect Airbnb’s stock price. Company-specific news, including earnings reports, announcements of new partnerships, or changes in leadership, would also be key catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in travel trends could also influence investor confidence and drive trading activity in this market, leading to changes in the perceived probabilities.