TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
polymarket

#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?

Volume:
$11,097

DeepSeek

 - Polymarket

DeepSeek - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 2:42 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,080
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,019
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$453
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$432
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$391
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$317
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 19, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 12 to October 18, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI lab market share tracks the current odds of different AI labs holding the largest market share as of the week of October 12. You’ll find the implied probabilities for each outcome, a price history chart showing how the odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,264. The total volume traded on this market is $11,097, indicating the level of interest from forecasters. This allows users to quickly assess the state of play and potential shifts in sentiment regarding the leading AI labs.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the AI lab market share. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments and long-term projections, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time expectations. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates different outcomes than conventional wisdom suggests. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on different methodologies and time horizons, making a direct comparison challenging, but the market provides a valuable, data-driven counterpoint.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each AI lab’s market share. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. Higher trading volume generally indicates greater confidence in the accuracy of the price, while significant price swings can signal new information or changing sentiment surrounding the leading AI labs.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on determining which AI lab holds the largest market share during the specified week. The market’s outcome will be determined by a widely recognized and publicly available source of data regarding AI lab market share, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news and reports leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major announcements regarding funding rounds, breakthroughs in AI technology, or shifts in partnerships for leading AI labs would likely cause price adjustments. Unexpected regulatory changes impacting the AI industry could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, the release of market share reports from reputable research firms, or even influential commentary from key industry figures, could all contribute to volatility in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the AI lab market share.