TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@ZelenskyyUa), posts on X between July 10, 12:00 PM ET and July 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@ZelenskyyUa), posts on X between July 10, 12:00 PM ET and July 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Prediction markets and polls measure different things: polls typically capture public opinion or expert forecasts at a single moment, while this market aggregates real-time trader conviction about a measurable outcome. Unlike polls, prediction markets create financial incentives for accuracy, which often leads traders to incorporate breaking news, behavioral patterns, and contextual signals faster than traditional surveys. For social media activity forecasts, market odds may reflect traders' analysis of Zelenskyy's recent posting frequency, geopolitical events, and communication strategies—factors that don't always appear in conventional polling data.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares of each outcome, with the share price reflecting the implied probability of that result. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome currently commands substantial trader interest, indicating high confidence in that particular post-count range. As new information emerges—such as changes in Zelenskyy's communication patterns or major geopolitical developments—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down to reflect updated expectations. The market's price discovery mechanism ensures that odds continuously reflect the collective judgment of active participants.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once the week concludes and Zelenskyy's actual post count can be verified. The outcome is confirmed by checking credible public sources—including his official social media accounts and verified reporting—to determine the exact number of posts published during the specified period. Once that count is established and falls into one of the predefined ranges offered in this market, the corresponding outcome is deemed correct and traders holding winning shares receive their payouts.
Several factors could shift trader expectations before Jul 17, 2026. Major geopolitical developments, military announcements, or diplomatic initiatives involving Ukraine could prompt Zelenskyy to increase or decrease his social media presence. Changes in his communication strategy, platform preference shifts, or significant domestic political events might also influence posting frequency. Additionally, historical patterns in his activity during comparable periods, seasonal trends, or unexpected crises could all trigger repricing. Traders monitor these signals closely and adjust positions accordingly, causing odds to fluctuate as new information becomes available.