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2,814

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
polymarket
kalshi

Who will be 2nd in Brazil's presidential election?

Volume:
$11,134,861

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 6:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$74,027
N/A
N/A
$31,291
2mo 3w 3d
Yes
polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,297,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro

View
0%
61%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$256,295
$2,673,894
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$111,169
N/A
N/A
$52,360
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Fernando Haddad

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$413,709
$813,668
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Fernando Haddad

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Romeu Zema

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$361,547
$421,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Romeu Zema

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$788
N/A
N/A
$267
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Tarcisio de Freitas

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$390,261
$274,571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tarcísio de Freitas

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Geraldo Alckmin

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$397,005
$234,108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Camilo Santana

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$394,376
$207,865
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jair Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$392,201
$205,331
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jair Bolsonaro

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Eduardo Leite

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$425,355
$142,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person K

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$361,124
$36,533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Renan Santos

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,450,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Renan Santos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,019
N/A
N/A
$3,930
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Ratinho Júnior

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$750,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ratinho Júnior

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Ronaldo Caiado

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$570,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ronaldo Caiado

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
No
polymarket

Person M

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$290,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$229,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
No
Total markets: 25 of 46

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishing in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi gives Lula da Silva a 99.0% chance of achieving this outcome. This forecast is based on data from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Resolution will be determined by the official vote count reported by the TSE, and the market will close upon completion of the first round and official results reporting, with a resolution date estimate of 2027-01-01. Keep an eye on the official candidate registration deadline in August 2026, as this will finalize the field of contenders.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets consistently resolve to the candidate with the second-highest valid vote count, with a tiebreaker of alphabetical order by last name, using official TSE results.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The candidate with the second-highest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election will determine the outcome.
  • In the event of a tie for second place, the candidate with the alphabetically earlier last name will be considered the winner.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Clear Second Place: If no clear second-place candidate emerges due to irregularities or disputes, the market will resolve to 'Other' if the result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (Polymarket).
  • Official Results Delay: If the official results from the TSE are significantly delayed, resolution may be postponed until the results are available, but will ultimately resolve to 'Other' by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (Polymarket).
Timing: Upon the official announcement of the first-round election results by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE), or no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if no definitive result is available.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kalshi

Ranking is determined by vote count or percentage in plurality voting systems. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving second place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the expiration date, all markets resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the potential outcome of the second-place finisher in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election by aggregating data from multiple prediction markets. Currently, the combined volume across Polymarket and Kalshi exceeds $11,134,861, with $1,559,379 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of expectations, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on these platforms. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction, while Kalshi uses a different mechanism to determine probabilities. The current market suggests a strong likelihood for a particular candidate.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to discrepancies, as market prices incorporate not only the probability of an outcome but also the perceived information advantage of informed traders. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes outperforming polls, particularly in situations where polling data is limited or unreliable. It is important to consider both sources of information when assessing the likely outcome of the Brazilian presidential election.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, shifts in economic conditions within Brazil, and unexpected developments in the campaigns of key candidates could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases, while not always decisive, can also trigger price movements. Additionally, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to substantial shifts in the odds. Unexpected announcements regarding campaign strategy or policy positions could also move this market, as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.