TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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North Carolina Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the North Carolina Senate election?

Total volume:
$2,535,459
Volume 24h:
$30,412
59%
Liquidity:
$235,843
24%
Open interest:
$2,026,604
1%

Democrat

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
96%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
$72,676
$104,250
0%
11%
N/A
N/A
active
kalshi

Roy Cooper

Trade
95%
Yes 94.6¢No 5.8¢
0.4¢
N/A
$1,377,033
0.3%
5%
$1,229,974
3mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
95.5%
Yes 95.3¢No 5.4¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Michael Whatley

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 94.4¢
0.4¢
N/A
$957,218
3%
18%
$796,630
3mo 6d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$163,168
$96,959
0.09%
21%
N/A
N/A
active
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate election, specifically whether Democrats or Republicans will win. Currently, the consensus probability favors a Democratic victory at 93.0%, with Republicans trailing at 7.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the winner declared by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification if consensus is not reached. Keep an eye on the primary elections scheduled throughout 2026, as candidate fields solidify and provide further insight into the race.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi focuses on the swearing-in of the elected official, while Polymarket focuses on the election result as called by news sources or official certification.Hero tip: Consider that a contested election or legal challenges could delay the swearing-in, potentially creating a discrepancy between the initial election call and Kalshi's resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the election winner as called by AP, Fox, and NBC (or official certification), including run-offs. "This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether a representative of a party is sworn in for the 2027 term. "If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of North Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The North Carolina Senate election in 2026 determines which party will hold the seat for the term beginning in 2027. Resolution occurs when a representative of either the Republican or Democratic party is sworn in as Senator of North Carolina for that term.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the outcome of the North Carolina Senate race by aggregating data from multiple prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $2,535,459, with $30,403 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of the probability of different outcomes in the race. On Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 95.5% chance of Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?, while Kalshi indicates a 94.6% probability of the same outcome. This allows for a more robust and informed prediction than relying on a single source.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially incorporating more nuanced information and anticipating shifts in voter behavior. Polling averages can be susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, while the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to make well-informed predictions. It’s important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the likely outcome of the North Carolina Senate race, as they each provide valuable insights.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to variations in price discovery. Furthermore, differing levels of participation and information available to traders on each platform can influence the odds. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? at 95.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? at 94.6%. These discrepancies highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the importance of considering multiple sources.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by which candidate is officially declared the winner of the North Carolina Senate race by the relevant election authorities. The resolution will be based on official results and any subsequent legal challenges that may arise. The aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi will be used to determine the final settlement of this market, providing a clear and transparent record of the predicted outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, and shifts in polling data are all likely to influence trader behavior. Unexpected events, such as scandals or gaffes by candidates, could also cause rapid price movements. Furthermore, changes in the national political landscape or key economic indicators could affect perceptions of the race. Any news that alters the perceived probability of either candidate winning the North Carolina Senate race will likely be reflected in the odds on both Polymarket and Kalshi.