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406,422

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Venezuela leader end of 2026?
kalshi
polymarket
predict
limitless

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Total volume:
$103,705,370
Volume 24h:
$90,050
100%
Liquidity:
$2,340,010
1%
Open interest:
$1,202,214
0.06%

Nicolás Maduro

all

4 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 76¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% | APY: 194% 92 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nicolás Maduro

Trade
77%
3%
Yes 76¢No 28¢
4¢
N/A
$968,810
0.16%
2%
$259,497
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

Nicolás Maduro

Trade
68%
4%
Yes 68.8¢No 33.4¢
2.2¢
$92,805
$3,317,888
0.2%
4%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
predict

Nicolás Maduro

Trade
68%
4%
Yes 68.9¢No 33.7¢
2.6¢
$101,073
$125,350
0.35%
8%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
limitless

Nicolás Maduro

Trade
68%
3%
Yes 67.5¢No 32.5¢
5¢
N/A
$1
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
70.3%
Yes 70.3¢No 31.9¢
Avg: 3.5¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

Delcy Rodríguez

Trade
21%
7%
Yes 22¢No 80¢
2¢
$80,241
$2,241,172
0.91%
4%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
predict

Delcy Rodríguez

Trade
21%
8%
Yes 21.8¢No 80¢
1.8¢
$33,765
$121,770
0.98%
7%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

Delcy Rodríguez

Trade
19%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
2¢
N/A
$1,362,592
0.15%
1%
$265,016
3mo 2d
active
limitless

Delcy Rodríguez

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
20.3%
Yes 20.9¢No 81¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 6¢
predict

María Corina Machado

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$17,768
$97
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

María Corina Machado

Trade
3%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.2¢
1.8¢
N/A
$1,119,304
0.01%
0.21%
$248,987
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

María Corina Machado

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.3¢
1.1¢
$83,992
$1,566,447
0.26%
3%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
limitless

María Corina Machado

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.3%
Yes 2.5¢No 98.5¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 2.4¢
predict

Dinorah Figuera

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$29,737
$50
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

Dinorah Figuera

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 99.4¢
1.5¢
N/A
$17,933
0%
0%
$9,225
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

Dinorah Figuera

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$203,312
$3,026,728
0.67%
0.83%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.7%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 1.5¢
predict

Edmundo González

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$7,825
$35
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

Edmundo González

Trade
1%
Yes 3.4¢No 99.5¢
2.9¢
N/A
$427,133
0.09%
0.13%
$88,695
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

Edmundo González

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$118,103
$1,375,511
0.01%
6%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.3%
Yes 2.2¢No 98.8¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2.9¢
predict

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$29,817
$33
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.9¢
1.6¢
N/A
$87,378
0.66%
2%
$24,869
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$62,608
$2,169,022
0%
2%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.3%
Yes 1.6¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 1.6¢Max: 1.6¢
predict

Richard Grenell

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
$9,017
$20
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

Richard Grenell

Trade
1%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$83,022
0%
0%
$15,390
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

Richard Grenell

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$137,516
$32,790,733
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1.3%
Yes 1.1¢No 99¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

No Head of State

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 98.3¢
0.8¢
$53,936
$1,634,644
0%
1%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
Total markets: 25 of 54

Intro

This market tracks whether Nicolás Maduro will remain the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict, and Limitless indicates a 73.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, or the UN if the Venezuelan government is unclear. Keep an eye on the Venezuelan presidential election scheduled for the second half of 2026, as the results will heavily influence the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same core definition of 'officially holds' and resolution source hierarchy (Venezuelan government first, then UN).Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution hinges on formal appointment, confirmation (if needed), and being sworn in as head of state.
  • If the Venezuelan government does not clearly identify the head of state, the UN listing will be decisive.
  • Nominations, designations without effective appointment, and past terms do not qualify as 'officially holding' the role.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple Claimants: If multiple individuals are officially listed as head of state, the individual with primary status will be used. If no distinction is made, the individual who first assumed the position will resolve the market.
  • No Head of State: If no individual officially holds the position, the market will resolve to 'No Head of State'.
Timing: The market will resolve on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET (Polymarket & Predict) or 10:00 AM ET (Kalshi). The 12:00 PM ET time is the consensus time.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Kalshi

A person officially holds the head of state position if any one of three criteria is met: (i) formal appointment, confirmation if required, and swearing-in; (ii) listing in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources; or (iii) active service with full authority and responsibilities, excluding suspended, on-leave, or acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified. Nomination without effective appointment, appointments effective after December 31, 2026, previous service with expired terms, consultant or unofficial roles, successor designations, and oversight roles do not constitute officially holding the position. Acting or interim capacity does not satisfy the criterion unless explicitly specified. Resolution is based on recognition by authoritative Venezuelan government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy.

Predict

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Limitless

Additional context — Updated August 25, 2026 Per the rules, “officially holds” refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. As of this clarification, The UN-recognized government of Venezuela has not formally removed or replaced Nicolás Maduro as President, and official government sources and statements continue to identify him as the President of Venezuela. Temporary legal measures assigning the exercise of presidential powers do not, on their own, constitute a transfer of the presidency. This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Venezuelan leadership market dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on who will be the head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. Currently, this market shows a consensus view reflecting a combined volume of $103,705,370 and 24-hour volume of $88,224. The dashboard tracks probabilities as determined by traders on both platforms, offering a unique perspective on potential outcomes. It’s a powerful tool for understanding the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the Venezuelan political landscape and the future of its leadership. This is a key resource for anyone following the Venezuelan leadership market.

Prediction market odds often provide a different signal than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, which can be influenced by social desirability bias or inaccurate self-reporting. This market, however, reflects what people are willing to *stake* on an outcome, providing a more tangible measure of belief. While polls may indicate a certain level of support for a candidate, the prices in this market reveal the perceived probability of that candidate actually holding power at the end of 2026. The 9.3 difference between the two platforms also highlights the nuanced views on the situation.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can all influence price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the specific rules and incentives on each platform can lead to variations in how traders interpret information and express their beliefs. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? at 67.7%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? at 77.0%. These differences reflect the unique dynamics of each market and the diverse perspectives of their participants.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will focus on who is recognized internationally and domestically as the head of state of Venezuela as of that date. The outcome will be based on verifiable facts and widely accepted sources, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news and official announcements leading up to Jan 1, 2027 to stay informed about potential developments that could influence the outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments within Venezuela, such as elections, power struggles, or constitutional changes, would be key catalysts. International pressure or intervention, including sanctions or diplomatic efforts, could also shift the probabilities. Unexpected economic events, like a significant oil price shock or a financial crisis, could destabilize the political landscape. Any credible reports regarding the health or status of key political figures could also move the market. Monitoring these factors closely will be crucial for understanding the evolving dynamics of the Venezuelan leadership market.