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Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
kalshi
polymarket

What will the Texas Senate election margin be?

Total volume:
$616,061
Volume 24h:
$13,053
74%
Liquidity:
$307,119
34%
Open interest:
$418,745
2%

Republicans, 1+ pts

 - Kalshi

Republicans, 1+ pts - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?

34%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 35¢ buys you 286 shares | Odds: 34% Total Payout: $286 | Net Profit: $186 Multiplier: 2.86x | ROI: 186% | APY: 171% 384 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republicans, 1+ pts

Trade
34%
1%
Yes 35¢No 67¢
2¢
N/A
$159,674
2%
82%
$128,017
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Republican 0-3%

Trade
31%
3%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$35,163
$4,991
3%
191%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Democrat 0-3%

Trade
30%
4%
Yes 31¢No 72¢
3¢
$31,804
$5,747
29%
736%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Republicans, 3+ pts

Trade
26%
3%
Yes 26¢No 76¢
2¢
N/A
$230,620
2%
61%
$155,322
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Democrat 3-6%

Trade
24%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
$36,374
$5,516
4%
300%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Republicans, 5+ pts

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 86¢
2¢
N/A
$108,517
3%
60%
$69,603
1y 2w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 7+ pts

Trade
10%
Yes 9.9¢No 92.9¢
2.8¢
N/A
$39,117
1%
45%
$29,892
1y 2w
active
kalshi

Republicans, 9+ pts

Trade
6%
3%
Yes 9.6¢No 93.9¢
3.5¢
N/A
$22,338
0.28%
121%
$18,198
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Republican 3-6%

Trade
6%
Yes 6.4¢No 94.5¢
0.9¢
$34,157
$6,210
6%
28%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Democrat 9-12%

Trade
5%
Yes 8.6¢No 97.7¢
6.3¢
$22,636
$1,161
0%
139%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Republicans, 11+ pts

Trade
5%
Yes 5.7¢No 97.7¢
3.4¢
N/A
$9,354
2%
100%
$6,665
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Democrat 12%+

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 96.9¢
2.9¢
$32,473
$1,607
0.07%
310%
N/A
2w 6d
active
kalshi

Republicans, 13+ pts

Trade
4%
Yes 3.9¢No 98.3¢
2.2¢
N/A
$15,322
0.86%
37%
$11,049
1y 2w
active
polymarket

Democrat 6-9%

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 6.3¢No 98.8¢
5.1¢
$22,913
$2,265
11%
431%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican 9-12%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 4.5¢No 99.7¢
4.2¢
$29,409
$731
4%
305%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican 6-9%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.5¢No 98.8¢
2.3¢
$31,939
$2,157
7%
132%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican 12%+

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 4.1¢No 99.7¢
3.8¢
$30,251
$734
4%
208%
N/A
2w 6d
active
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the expected margin of victory for Republicans in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas. Currently, the consensus probability that the Republican margin of victory will be at least 1 percentage point is 38.0%, while the probability of a Republican win between 0% and 3% is 31.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the official results of the 2026 election as defined by a win of 9 percentage points or more for the Republican Party. Traders should watch the primary election results on March 1, 2026, to gauge early momentum and candidate strength.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses discrete thresholds, while Polymarket uses percentage ranges for margin of victory.Hero tip: Be mindful of the different market structures. Kalshi's markets are more sensitive to precise outcomes, while Polymarket's are more forgiving within a range.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets ask if the Republican or Democratic candidate will win by a specific percentage range (e.g., 0%-3%). Resolution depends on the official vote count falling within that range. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' if the Republican Party wins by a specific percentage point or more (e.g., 1%, 3%, 5%). Resolution is based on exceeding a discrete threshold. "If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The Republican Party's margin of victory is determined by calculating the difference between its vote percentage and the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind it if Republicans win, or the vote percentage of the first-place finisher if Republicans lose. Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, with no rounding applied. For example, a margin of 0.99999% falls within the 1-3% range, while exactly 3% falls within the 3-5% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple party labels, votes are aggregated. A Republican victory produces a positive margin, a loss produces a negative margin, and a tie produces a zero margin. For uncontested races where Republicans are the only candidate, the margin is set at 100 percentage points.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the potential margin of victory in the Texas Senate election. It aggregates trading activity across both platforms to provide a consensus view of the likely outcome. Currently, the combined volume for this market is $616,061, with $12,997 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to express their predictions and for observers to see a market-based forecast for the election. The dashboard reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the Texas Senate election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to biases related to sampling and respondent accuracy. This market, however, represents continuously updated probabilities based on real money at stake. While polls may indicate a certain level of support for candidates, the market reflects what traders are willing to bet on, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential shifts in sentiment. It’s a forward-looking indicator, potentially more responsive to developing events than static poll numbers.

Prices for this market can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing interpretations of the same information. Additionally, Polymarket currently favors Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%? at 30.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points? at 34.0%. These discrepancies highlight how different groups of traders weigh available data and assess the probabilities associated with the Texas Senate election.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official vote count for the Texas Senate election, as reported by relevant election authorities. The market will reflect the actual margin of victory between the candidates, determining which outcome aligns with the final results. Traders should monitor official sources for the accurate and timely determination of the election’s outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news events related to the candidates, such as policy announcements, debates, or scandals, could shift trader sentiment. Changes in economic conditions within Texas, or national political trends, could also influence predictions. Unexpected endorsements or significant fundraising activity could also move the market. Finally, any shifts in polling data, while not directly reflected in the market, could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust their bets on the Texas Senate election.