TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
polymarket
kalshi

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Total volume:
$3,693,123
Volume 24h:
$33,830
23%
Liquidity:
$287,033
14%
Open interest:
$2,303,350
0.65%

Below 193

 - Kalshi

Below 193 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress?

31%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 31¢ buys you 323 shares | Odds: 31% Total Payout: $323 | Net Profit: $223 Multiplier: 3.23x | ROI: 223% High Projected APY: 2,956% 124 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Below 193

Trade
31%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
N/A
$628,015
0.89%
5%
$380,500
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

Below 190

Trade
28%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
$37,451
$47,476
0.03%
2%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

195-199

Trade
17%
Yes 19¢No 86¢
5¢
$33,092
$34,658
0.06%
1%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

198-202

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 85¢
1¢
N/A
$190,918
2%
9%
$139,376
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

193-197

Trade
14%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$220,519
1%
5%
$130,088
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

190-194

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 88¢
3¢
$26,864
$15,891
0.06%
1%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

200-204

Trade
13%
2%
Yes 15¢No 88.5¢
3.5¢
$25,935
$26,934
0.5%
0.62%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

203-207

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
N/A
$164,704
0.57%
3%
$133,361
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

205-209

Trade
12%
Yes 12.6¢No 88.9¢
1.5¢
$36,157
$41,892
0%
0.33%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

208-212

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$195,954
0.13%
5%
$157,778
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

210-214

Trade
10%
Yes 11.3¢No 91.9¢
3.2¢
$27,532
$16,547
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

213-217

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$204,579
6%
17%
$165,993
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

215-219

Trade
6%
Yes 6.4¢No 94.4¢
0.8¢
$23,599
$12,169
0.08%
0.12%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

218-222

Trade
5%
Yes 4¢No 96.7¢
0.7¢
N/A
$426,264
0.3%
7%
$253,627
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

220-224

Trade
4%
Yes 4.9¢No 97.1¢
2¢
$27,738
$60,118
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
kalshi

Above 237

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97.9¢
0.9¢
N/A
$315,245
0.25%
5%
$266,383
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

223-227

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.3¢
0.3¢
N/A
$381,479
2%
3%
$245,007
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

228-232

Trade
2%
Yes 1.5¢No 98.6¢
0.1¢
N/A
$367,495
0.64%
3%
$215,517
4mo 4d
active
kalshi

233-237

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 98.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$285,081
0%
3%
$215,720
4mo 4d
active
polymarket

225-229

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.2¢
0.6¢
$24,289
$25,094
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

230+

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.7¢
0.7¢
$24,377
$32,090
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 5d
active
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks the number of seats the Republican Party will hold in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Currently, the consensus probability estimates a 31.0% chance of the Republican Party winning 193 seats in the 120th Congress, while the second most likely outcome – the Republican Party holding below 190 House seats – is estimated at 29.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and credible reporting sources. Keep an eye on the results of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026, as these will directly impact the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves on a date *after* the election, potentially affected by post-election changes, while Polymarket resolves based on the immediate post-election count.Hero tip: Consider the potential for post-election events to influence Kalshi's resolution, especially if close races lead to recounts or contested seats. Polymarket offers a more direct reflection of the initial election outcome.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the Republican Party's seat count immediately following the 2026 midterm elections, including runoff results and considering party affiliation changes up to the organization of Congress. The resolution source is official election authorities, Congress, and credible reporting.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the Republican Party's seat count as of February 1, 2027. This allows for potential changes due to resignations, special elections, or party switches after the initial election. The resolution date is fixed to Feb 1, 2027.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

The Republican party's House seat total on February 1, 2027 will be measured across multiple outcome brackets ranging from below 193 seats through above 237 seats. Each bracket represents a specific range or threshold of seats, and the market resolves to Yes for the bracket matching the actual Republican seat count on the resolution date. This comprehensive range captures the full spectrum of possible post-election House compositions, allowing traders to express granular views on Republican representation across different scenarios of electoral performance.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates trading activity for the 2026 House control market, providing a consensus view of predictions about the number of Republican seats after the 2026 midterm elections. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $3,693,123, with $33,684 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see how the collective wisdom of the crowd is pricing the likelihood of different outcomes. The current spread between the most and least likely outcomes is approximately 3.5 percentage points, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the election.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot in time, while this market reflects continuously updated beliefs based on new information and analysis. While both can be valuable, prediction markets aggregate the insights of many informed traders, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts. It's important to remember that prediction markets are not simply reflecting polls; they are a distinct source of information about future events. This market provides a unique signal that can be compared to, and contrasted with, traditional political analysis.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Different trader bases, varying liquidity, and distinct market-making strategies all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, each platform may attract users with different levels of expertise or access to information. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? at 27.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Republican Party win 193 seats in the 120th Congress? at 31.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the importance of considering multiple sources of information.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the final seat counts are verifiable from credible public reporting following the 2026 midterm elections. The market will determine the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the House of Representatives after the election. The resolution will be based on official results certified by relevant election authorities. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the election results become available and the outcome is finalized.

Numerous factors could influence trading activity in this market. Key events include major economic shifts, significant political endorsements, unexpected candidate developments, and changes in national or regional polling data. Legislative outcomes, Supreme Court decisions, and even unforeseen geopolitical events could also impact predictions about the 2026 midterm elections. Any news that alters perceptions of the Republican Party's chances of success in key House races is likely to move this market, as traders adjust their positions based on the latest information.