TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Texas
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
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Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 3, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
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Intro
This market tracks which US Senate race in the 2026 election will have the smallest margin of victory, calculated as the absolute difference in percentage points between the top two candidates’ vote shares. Currently, the consensus probability that Kansas will have the smallest margin of victory is 17.0%, while Texas is close behind at 16.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on whether Ohio has the smallest margin of victory among all 2026 United States Senate elections as of January 3, 2027. Keep an eye on the results of the primary elections scheduled throughout 2026, as they will begin to narrow the field of competitive races.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers markets for each state individually being the closest race, while Polymarket focuses on identifying the single closest race overall.Hero tip: Polymarket's market provides a single point of prediction for the closest race, while Kalshi allows for betting on individual states. Consider the implied probabilities across Kalshi's markets when forming a view on Polymarket.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: The market resolves to the state with the smallest margin of victory, defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Resolution source is state election authorities and credible reporting. "If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically."
- Kalshi: Each market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific state has the smallest margin of victory among *all* Senate elections as of January 3, 2027. This creates a separate market for each state being the closest.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for whichever state has the smallest margin of victory in its 2026 Senate election as measured by January 3, 2027. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between the top two finishers. For two-candidate races, this is the winner's percentage minus the runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second place counts. If ranked choice or instant runoff voting is used, the margin from the final round determines the winner. If official results are unavailable by the deadline but at least 95% of expected votes are counted, preliminary results are used. When margins are identical to the hundredth of a percentage point, tied states split the payout equally. Elections that are postponed or lack sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No and are excluded from consideration.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information – including fundraising data, candidate quality, and potential unforeseen events. This can lead to divergences, as markets are forward-looking and can adjust quickly to new information. It’s important to remember that neither is perfect, but both provide valuable insights into the potential outcome of the 2026 Senate elections.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each platform can lead to varied assessments of the same event. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026? at 16.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? at 18.0%, demonstrating these discrepancies in market sentiment.
This market resolves around Jan 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which Senate race in the 2026 election had the smallest margin of victory, based on official election results. The outcome will be determined by comparing the vote differences in all U.S. Senate races held in 2026 and identifying the race with the narrowest margin. This process ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the closest Senate contest.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major candidate announcements, significant fundraising reports, shifts in economic conditions, or unexpected political scandals could all cause traders to reassess their predictions. Polling data releases, while not always decisive, can also influence market prices. Furthermore, any event that alters the perceived competitiveness of a particular Senate race – such as a major debate performance or a key endorsement – could lead to substantial movement in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the evolving dynamics of the 2026 Senate elections.
