TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$99,401,033

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,177,208,320

335,484

Markets across

33,267

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,184

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Elections
kalshi
polymarket

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Total volume:
$4,173,461
Volume 24h:
$57,490
3%
Liquidity:
$1,321,174
18%
Open interest:
$6,600
2%

Magdalena Andersson

 - Polymarket

Magdalena Andersson - Polymarket

89%

+2%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Vol.

$84.4k

·

Resolves Oct 21, 2026

Time left: 16d:23h:16m

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

89%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 89¢ buys you 112 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $112 | Net Profit: $12 Multiplier: 1.12x | ROI: 12% High Projected APY: 1,119% 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks who will become the next Prime Minister of Sweden after the parliamentary elections. The aggregated consensus probability shows Magdalena Andersson leading at 85.5%, with Ulf Kristersson at 10.5%. Data comes from Kalshi and Polymarket, resolving per official information from the Government of Sweden. Watch the September 13, 2026 election results as the key catalyst for market resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the official appointment and assumption of office of the next Prime Minister of Sweden following the September 13, 2026 parliamentary elections, with consistent deadlines and sources.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the Government of Sweden, with credible reporting consensus as secondary

Core resolution logic:

  • The next Prime Minister must be officially appointed and assume office following the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election
  • If no Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, markets resolve to "Other" or equivalent options
  • Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Interim Prime Minister: Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward resolution; only the officially appointed individual who assumes office following the election counts
  • No Prime Minister by Deadline: If no Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, markets will resolve to "Other" or equivalent options
Timing: Markets will resolve once the next Prime Minister is officially appointed and assumes office following the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election, with a deadline of June 30, 2027Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

A market resolves to Yes if the named party holds at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in Sweden's first official, stable government formed after the September 13, 2026 general election, with resolution occurring before January 1, 2028. Parties must be part of the ruling coalition—not merely external supporters—and must have representatives in ministerial roles (statsråd). Caretaker governments and transitional administrations do not count. If an extraordinary election occurs due to repeated rejections of proposed Prime Ministers, the first government formed after that election applies. Markets resolve No if no government forms by the deadline. Party identification considers legal continuity; dissolved parties or mergers do not transfer eligibility unless involving a legal name change preserving the same organization.

Frequently asked questions

The Swedish PM race dashboard aggregates predictions across multiple betting venues for this election-focused question. It shows how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of various candidates or coalitions taking office. The view combines live odds, volume of $3,888,561, and 24-hour volume of $49,549 to reflect market consensus and momentum. Because this market draws interest from politics enthusiasts worldwide, the dashboard helps users spot trends and compare expectations ahead of the final vote.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling averages due to different weighting mechanisms and trader sentiment. While polls sample public opinion directly, markets incorporate betting behavior, liquidity constraints, and risk preferences. This can lead to notable differences — for example, a candidate might appear stronger in polls but have lower market odds if traders perceive higher uncertainty or risk around their candidacy. Tracking both sources together helps identify where consensus is strong versus where market dynamics are driving price action in this market.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Bookmakers on Polymarket and Kalshi use distinct scoring rules and user bases, which can create price gaps. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? at 88.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Swedish Social Democratic Party be a part of the next government in Sweden? at 88.0%. Differences in liquidity, regional participation, and how each platform weights new information all feed into the spread of 0.5 between the two venues.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by official election results and subsequent government formation processes in Sweden. Traders will watch coalition negotiations and parliamentary votes closely, as these determine who ultimately assumes the role. The market settles based on who is formally appointed as Prime Minister following the conclusion of Sweden's electoral and governmental procedures.

Key events that could shift this market include opinion poll releases, party leadership changes, coalition announcements, and major policy debates. Economic data, scandals, or unexpected electoral developments may also influence trader sentiment. As the election approaches, debates and public reactions can cause rapid price adjustments. Traders will monitor political maneuvering closely, especially any shifts in party alliances or public support, all of which can dramatically alter the perceived likelihood of each candidate winning.