TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.4b
24H VOL:
$253,188,585
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,753,729
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,134,396,915
829,496
Markets across
15,042
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
954
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Graham Platner will withdraw from or suspend his 2026 Maine Senate campaign. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows 54.0% probability for withdrawal by the November 2 deadline, with 35.0% probability assigned to the alternative outcome. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Platner or his representatives, supplemented by credible reporting if needed. Watch for any formal withdrawal or campaign suspension announcement by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the final deadline for this market's resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi markets address different event types: Polymarket resolves on withdrawal announcements by specific dates; Kalshi resolves on election winner determination. The markets are not directly comparable or mutually exclusive.Hero tip: Treat these as separate prediction tracks. Polymarket dropout markets are early-warning indicators for campaign suspension; Kalshi's market is a final election outcome bet. A YES on Polymarket (Platner drops out) does not determine Kalshi's resolution—another candidate could still win. Use Polymarket for timing/announcement risk; use Kalshi for ultimate winner prediction.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Eight binary dropout markets with daily granularity (July 6–10, July 17, July 31, November 2). Each resolves YES if Platner withdraws, announces withdrawal, or suspends campaign by the specified cutoff date, 11:59 PM ET. Primary source: official Platner/representative statements; secondary: credible reporting consensus.
- Kalshi: Single market listing 15 potential 2026 Maine Senate winners (Platner, Collins, Mills, Shah, Jackson, Dempsey, Geiger, Bryant, Bellows, Kleban, Daughtrey, Gideon, King, King III, and others). Resolves YES if any listed candidate wins the election. No explicit dropout or withdrawal resolution criteria provided.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Graham Platner withdraws from or officially announces his withdrawal from the 2026 Maine Senate election, or announces the suspension of his 2026 Senate campaign, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Graham Platner or his official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified candidates wins the 2026 Maine Senate election. Resolution is based on the official outcome of the general election as determined by Maine election authorities. Markets may be eligible for accelerated determination following a consensus projection of the winner by major media organizations, subject to full rules and conditions.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracked here often diverge from traditional polling because traders face direct financial incentives to forecast accurately, whereas polls measure stated preferences at a single moment. Markets aggregate dispersed information and adjust continuously as new developments emerge, making them responsive to breaking news, campaign dynamics, and insider signals that polls may lag in capturing. This market's active trading volume suggests participants believe their collective judgment differs meaningfully from conventional political analysis on this particular outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi may price this outcome differently due to variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and market-making strategies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct risk tolerances and information sets, and differences in fee structures or order-book dynamics can create temporary arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, platform-specific rules around market resolution or dispute handling may influence how traders perceive tail risks, causing one venue to price the outcome higher or lower than the other even when tracking the same event.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the candidate in question has formally withdrawn from the race by that date. Traders should monitor official campaign announcements, regulatory filings, and major news sources as the deadline approaches to assess the likelihood of an early exit versus continued participation through the resolution window.
Major catalysts include campaign funding announcements, polling shifts in key early states, debate performance, endorsement changes, and any public statements regarding candidacy intentions. Legal or regulatory developments affecting the candidate's eligibility or campaign operations could also trigger sharp repricing. Internal campaign staff departures, shifts in media coverage, or unexpected primary results in other races may signal momentum changes that traders incorporate into their positions. Close monitoring of political news and campaign filings will help identify inflection points before the market settles.
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