TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 06h:03m:35s
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This event tracks the performance of Z.AI as a service hosted on Vercel, measuring its adoption among leading research laboratories on a specific date. It reflects potential trends in AI infrastructure preferences within the scientific community, indicating how widely Z.AI is utilized relative to other platforms.
The event determines whether the Z.AI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top laboratories on November 2, 2026, exceeds specified percentage thresholds. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold, ranging from 6.3% to 11.9%. Resolution depends on the recorded share, rounded to one decimal place, as verified and published by Kalshi at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026. All markets operate independently, with each threshold representing a separate condition for resolution. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal association with Vercel, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for Z.AI's request share in 2026, as such long-term predictions are not widely available. However, the collective wisdom of traders in this market can be seen as an alternative forecasting method. If analysts were to predict a certain percentage share for Z.AI, comparing that to the implied probability reflected in the odds on Kalshi could reveal whether the market anticipates a different outcome than traditional expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own expectations, leading to a dynamic and efficient price discovery process for the Z.AI request share. The current top outcome has a chance percentage of 99.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Z.AI’s share of requests on November 2, 2026, as reported by Vercel. The specific methodology for calculating this share will be determined by Vercel and will be publicly available. Traders should monitor announcements from Vercel as the resolution date approaches to understand the exact data that will be used to determine the outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding Z.AI’s development, performance benchmarks, or adoption rates would be key catalysts. Changes in the broader AI landscape, such as breakthroughs from competing models or shifts in industry trends, could also influence trading activity. Additionally, any news related to Vercel’s AI Gateway or its overall strategy could move the market. Positive developments for Z.AI are likely to increase demand for contracts predicting a higher request share, while negative news could drive prices down.