TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Z.ai market share this week
kalshi

What is Z.ai's market share this week?

Volume:
$138,986

Above 10.8%

 - Kalshi

Above 10.8% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 10.8%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51,414
N/A
N/A
$17,191
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 8.9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,274
N/A
N/A
$16,069
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 8.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,260
N/A
N/A
$3,260
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 8.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,091
N/A
N/A
$1,091
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$636
N/A
N/A
$636
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 14.1%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,127
N/A
N/A
$13,557
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.3%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the weekly usage performance of Z.ai within a specific AI platform. It measures how much of the platform's text generation tasks are attributed to Z.ai during a defined period. The outcome depends on whether Z.ai's share exceeds various thresholds, reflecting its adoption and competitive position in the market.

Kalshi

The event determines whether Z.ai achieves specified market share thresholds on OpenRouter for the week of Oct 5, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, ranging from 4.3% to 14.1%. Resolution is based on the market share data reported by OpenRouter at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following the week in question, rounded to one decimal place. If Z.ai’s market share is not separately listed and is grouped under “Others,” all markets resolve to No. The markets are independent, with each threshold representing a distinct outcome. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with OpenRouter, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Z.ai market share tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for this market, alongside the total volume traded. You’ll find a price history chart to visualize how the market has moved over time, as well as the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $614. The total volume traded on this market is $138,986. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the Z.ai market share.

Currently, the odds on Kalshi reflect a different perspective than some analyst forecasts regarding the Z.ai market share. While some analysts predict a significant increase in Z.ai’s market share, this market suggests a more cautious outlook. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk, potentially offering a more real-time and incentivized assessment than static analyst reports. This comparison highlights the dynamic nature of forecasting and the value of diverse perspectives.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the Z.ai market share. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders exchange positions, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. This creates a dynamic and efficient price discovery mechanism, allowing the market to aggregate information from a wide range of sources.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Z.ai market share is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific percentage will be determined by a reputable source tracking market share data in the relevant industry. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the final, verified market share percentage.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Z.ai regarding new products, partnerships, or financial performance would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the competitive landscape, such as a competitor launching a similar product or gaining significant market traction, could also move the market. Additionally, broader economic trends or shifts in industry regulations impacting the AI sector could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.