TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 5PM ET
Volume:
$18,089
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 30, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with multiple price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index at multiple distinct price thresholds. These sources can produce different price readings and outcomes for the same event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume the same XRP price movement will resolve identically across both platforms. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on Binance candle data, while Kalshi's 40 separate Yes/No markets each trigger at different CF Benchmarks thresholds. Arbitrage risk is high if you trade the same directional bet across platforms—verify the exact price source and threshold before entering positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance XRP/USDT pair 1-hour candle open versus close price. Binary outcome: Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Single resolution source: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Contains 40 separate Yes/No markets, each with a distinct price threshold ranging from 0.8999 to 1.6799. Each market resolves Yes if the index average exceeds its specific threshold: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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