TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET
Volume:
$6,906
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 29, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with a complex multi-band resolution structure covering 40 discrete price ranges.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance XRP/USDT spot vs CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index), different measurement methodologies (1H candle close vs open comparison vs 60-second average), and different outcome structures (binary Up/Down vs 40-band Yes/No). The markets measure related but distinct settlement values.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket resolves to a simple Up or Down outcome based on Binance candle data. Kalshi resolves to Yes if the CF Benchmarks 60-second average falls within one of 40 predefined price bands, or No otherwise. Basis risk exists: Binance spot and CF Benchmarks index can diverge. Confirm which data source you are exposed to before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market: resolves Up if XRP/USDT close >= open for the 1H candle beginning March 29, 5 PM ET on Binance; otherwise Down. Uses Binance spot exchange data. Single data point per outcome.
- Kalshi: 40-outcome price-band market: resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT falls within one of 40 discrete bands (e.g., 0.92000-0.9399, 1.00000-1.0199, 1.40000-1.4199, etc.); resolves No if outside all bands. Uses CF Benchmarks real-time index, not spot exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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