TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET

Volume:
$6,906

XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Closed: Mar 29, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.32 to 1.3399

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$397
N/A
N/A
$233
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.3 to 1.3199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.34 to 1.3599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.24 to 1.2599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.28 to 1.2999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.06 to 1.0799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.08 to 1.0999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.92 to 0.9399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.1 to 1.1199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.2 to 1.2199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.36 to 1.3799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.9199999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.94 to 0.9599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.04 to 1.0599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.12 to 1.1399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.38 to 1.3999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.96 to 0.9799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.98 to 0.9999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1 to 1.0199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.02 to 1.0399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.14 to 1.1599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.16 to 1.1799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.18 to 1.1999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.22 to 1.2399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 29, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with a complex multi-band resolution structure covering 40 discrete price ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance XRP/USDT spot vs CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index), different measurement methodologies (1H candle close vs open comparison vs 60-second average), and different outcome structures (binary Up/Down vs 40-band Yes/No). The markets measure related but distinct settlement values.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket resolves to a simple Up or Down outcome based on Binance candle data. Kalshi resolves to Yes if the CF Benchmarks 60-second average falls within one of 40 predefined price bands, or No otherwise. Basis risk exists: Binance spot and CF Benchmarks index can diverge. Confirm which data source you are exposed to before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market: resolves Up if XRP/USDT close >= open for the 1H candle beginning March 29, 5 PM ET on Binance; otherwise Down. Uses Binance spot exchange data. Single data point per outcome.
  • Kalshi: 40-outcome price-band market: resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT falls within one of 40 discrete bands (e.g., 0.92000-0.9399, 1.00000-1.0199, 1.40000-1.4199, etc.); resolves No if outside all bands. Uses CF Benchmarks real-time index, not spot exchange.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.