TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
predict

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

Sep 1, 2026, 1:07 AM EST - Oct 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$17,470,899
Volume 24h:
$2,497,638
137%
Liquidity:
$2,021,297
35%
Open interest:
$3,658,359N/A

↓ 82,500

 - Polymarket

↓ 82,500 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Time left: 01d:11h:04m

Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?

72%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 72¢ buys you 139 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $139 | Net Profit: $39 Multiplier: 1.39x | ROI: 39% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ 82,500

Trade
72%
12%
Yes 72¢No 29¢
1¢
$34,001
$487,054
24%
2,428%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↑ 85,000

Trade
23%
33%
Yes 24¢No 78¢
2¢
$27,142
$61,877
184%
N/A
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↓ 80,000

Trade
9%
Yes 9.7¢No 90.9¢
0.6¢
$60,538
$619,779
23%
369%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
predict

↑ 87,500

Trade
3%
11%
Yes 3.7¢No 98.3¢
2¢
$33,284
$20,916
41%
296%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↑ 87,500

Trade
2%
10%
Yes 2.6¢No 97.8¢
0.4¢
$37,246
$1,252,078
10%
107%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
2.5%
Yes 3.2¢No 98.1¢
Avg: 1.2¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

↓ 77,500

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 98.1¢
0.3¢
$101,482
$383,004
22%
605%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
predict

↑ 90,000

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.3¢
0.1¢
$35,729
$29,318
13%
156%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↑ 90,000

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.5¢
0.1¢
$90,602
$1,254,549
8%
83%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

↓ 75,000

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.4¢
0.2¢
$101,768
$469,242
6%
227%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
predict

↑ 92,500

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.6¢
0.4¢
$32,793
$16,421
0.27%
174%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↑ 92,500

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$89,553
$698,882
7%
167%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.4¢
predict

↑ 97,500

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$41,291
$14,485
9%
613%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↑ 97,500

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$92,577
$614,579
13%
59%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 0.9¢
predict

↑ 95,000

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$41,045
$4,526
103%
117%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↑ 95,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$120,959
$857,401
16%
73%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.9¢
predict

↑ 100,000

Trade
1%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
—
$41,084
$4,525
63%
1,908%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↑ 100,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$135,829
$1,665,581
12%
37%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

↓ 72,500

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$33,705
$17,100
10%
99%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↓ 72,500

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$104,052
$650,859
2%
27%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
polymarket

↓ 70,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$123,091
$776,403
3%
35%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↓ 55,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$119,163
$1,065,599
0.22%
13%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↓ 65,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$97,164
$786,799
0.88%
21%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↓ 57,500

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$95,297
$647,749
2%
30%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↓ 60,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$90,440
$547,938
0.79%
33%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
polymarket

↓ 67,500

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$83,225
$414,930
3%
32%
N/A
1d 11h 4m
active
Total markets: 25 of 49

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin reaching specific price levels during the month of September. Currently, the consensus is that Bitcoin will dip to $82,500 in September, with a 72.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome is that Bitcoin will reach $85,000 in September, at 22.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Predict, and will resolve based on the high and low price of a single 1-minute candle on Binance BTC/USDT. Traders should watch the final day of September, as resolution will be determined by price action up to 11:59 PM ET.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize identical resolution criteria based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High/Low prices during September.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is triggered if *any* 1-minute candle within the specified timeframe reaches or exceeds the target price (for 'reach' markets).
  • Resolution is triggered if *any* 1-minute candle within the specified timeframe dips to or below the target price (for 'dip' markets).
  • Timeframe is defined as 00:00 AM ET on the first day of September to 11:59 PM ET on the last day of September.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Market Creation Time: Polymarket includes markets with resolution starting from market creation, while Predict markets resolve from the beginning of September. This is a minor difference as all markets are created well before September.
  • Tie Resolution: If a 1-minute candle's High/Low *exactly* matches the target price, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
Timing: Markets will resolve immediately upon the first 1-minute candle meeting the specified criteria within the defined timeframe (00:00 AM ET September 1st to 11:59 PM ET September 30th).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

Predict

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those in this market, reflect the collective wisdom of traders and can offer a different perspective than traditional spot price expectations. Spot prices are determined by immediate supply and demand, while this market incorporates expectations about future events and potential catalysts. The implied probability distribution from this market can be used to assess the likelihood of different Bitcoin price levels in September, providing a forward-looking view compared to the current market price. A significant difference between the two could signal opportunities or risks.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge for several reasons, even when tracking the same underlying event. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different user bases, trading fees, and market-specific rules can all contribute to price discrepancies. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? at 71.5%, while Predict leans toward Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? at 2.7%. These differences highlight how varied interpretations and risk appetites can influence pricing across prediction markets, even for the same question.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the September closing price of Bitcoin is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized exchange and will be the basis for determining payouts. Traders will be able to see the outcome and settlement details on both Polymarket and Predict after the resolution date. The market's outcome is based on the actual price achieved, not on any subjective assessment.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, often influence Bitcoin's price. Regulatory developments, like potential approvals of Bitcoin ETFs or changes in cryptocurrency regulations, are also key catalysts. Unexpected news events, like geopolitical tensions or major security breaches affecting cryptocurrency exchanges, could also cause volatility. Furthermore, large institutional investments or whale activity could shift the price and, consequently, the odds in this market.