TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 24, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 33 separate price threshold contracts.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price indices (Binance XRP/USDT spot vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI) and different resolution methodologies (1H candle close vs. open comparison vs. 60-second RTI average above threshold). Both measure at 5 PM ET on March 24, 2026, but basis risk between the two indices could produce conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as fungible markets. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (close >= open on Binance 1H candle). Kalshi is a series of price level bets using a different benchmark index. If you trade both, monitor the spread between Binance spot and CF Benchmarks RTI in the hour leading up to 5 PM ET. Basis divergence of even 0.5% could flip outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1H candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 24, 2026. Otherwise resolves Down. Source: Binance spot exchange data displayed on the 1H chart.Kalshi:
33 separate Yes/No contracts, each tied to a specific price threshold (0.8999 to 1.6799 USD). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. No explicit Down outcome; unmet thresholds imply No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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