TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$819

$1.37991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.37991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 22, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.37991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
$81
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.35991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.71991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$321
N/A
N/A
$321
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.41991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
$245
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.39991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.77991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
$41
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.43991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$24
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.45991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.63991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.25991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.33991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.57991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.27991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.53991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.21991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.51991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.47991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.67991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.23991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 22, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink's XRP/USD data stream comparing end-of-period to start-of-period price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) measured at 5:00 PM EDT with 40 separate Yes/No thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms employ incompatible measurement methodologies: Polymarket uses a price-change comparison (start vs end) over a 4-hour range, while Kalshi uses 40 separate price-level thresholds at a single 5 PM EDT snapshot. Data sources (Chainlink vs CF Benchmarks) and time windows (4:00–8:00 PM ET vs 5 PM EDT) also differ.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with different payoff structures. Polymarket is a directional bet; Kalshi is a series of price-level bets. Do not cross-hedge or assume they will resolve identically. Verify which oracle (Chainlink or CF Benchmarks) you trust and whether your trading strategy depends on the 4-hour window or the 5 PM snapshot.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional price-change market. Compares XRP/USD at 4:00 PM ET (start) vs 8:00 PM ET (end) using Chainlink oracle. Resolves Up if end >= start; Down otherwise. Single binary outcome. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
  • Kalshi: 40 separate price-level markets. Each measures CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5:00 PM EDT (point-in-time snapshot) against a fixed threshold (ranging from 0.9999 to 1.7799). Each resolves Yes if snapshot > threshold, No otherwise. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.