TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$819
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 22, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink's XRP/USD data stream comparing end-of-period to start-of-period price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) measured at 5:00 PM EDT with 40 separate Yes/No thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms employ incompatible measurement methodologies: Polymarket uses a price-change comparison (start vs end) over a 4-hour range, while Kalshi uses 40 separate price-level thresholds at a single 5 PM EDT snapshot. Data sources (Chainlink vs CF Benchmarks) and time windows (4:00–8:00 PM ET vs 5 PM EDT) also differ.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with different payoff structures. Polymarket is a directional bet; Kalshi is a series of price-level bets. Do not cross-hedge or assume they will resolve identically. Verify which oracle (Chainlink or CF Benchmarks) you trust and whether your trading strategy depends on the 4-hour window or the 5 PM snapshot.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional price-change market. Compares XRP/USD at 4:00 PM ET (start) vs 8:00 PM ET (end) using Chainlink oracle. Resolves Up if end >= start; Down otherwise. Single binary outcome. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate price-level markets. Each measures CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5:00 PM EDT (point-in-time snapshot) against a fixed threshold (ranging from 0.9999 to 1.7799). Each resolves Yes if snapshot > threshold, No otherwise. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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