TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 19, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 37 discrete price band outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct price sources and measurement methodologies create incompatible resolution outcomes. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average across 37 discrete price bands.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi outcomes are correlated. Binance spot price and CF Benchmarks index can diverge. Monitor both sources independently. Kalshi's 37 price bands mean most outcomes resolve to No unless the index lands precisely in one of the specified ranges.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open; Down otherwise. Resolution source: Binance official 1H candle data for XRP/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
37 discrete Yes outcomes tied to CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average in specific price bands (e.g., 1.12000-1.1399, 1.14000-1.1599, ... 1.8799+). Resolves Yes if index falls within any specified band; No otherwise. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [price range] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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