TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5PM ET
Volume:
$24,982
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 18, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 40 separate price-level thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and resolution methodology.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct market architectures and data sources. Polymarket is a binary Up/Down candle comparison on Binance XRP/USDT; Kalshi is a suite of 40 independent price-level thresholds using CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI. The markets are not directly comparable and may produce conflicting outcomes if Binance spot and CF Benchmarks RTI diverge.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets, not hedges. Polymarket bets on directional movement (close >= open). Kalshi bets on absolute price levels. If you want to trade both, map your XRP price forecast to the appropriate Kalshi threshold, then separately assess whether Binance will show an up candle. Monitor both Binance XRP/USDT and CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI in the hour leading to 5 PM ET to spot any data source divergence.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional outcome. Resolves Up if XRP/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price on Binance at the specified time. Resolves Down otherwise. Single outcome per market. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
- Kalshi: 40 independent price-level markets. Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (1.0999, 1.1199, 1.1399, ... 1.8799). No binary Up/Down logic; each threshold is a separate Yes/No outcome. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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