TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET

Volume:
$4,570

$1.47991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.47991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 16, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.47991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,690
N/A
N/A
$1,417
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.51991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,091
N/A
N/A
$1,017
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.29991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
$197
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.31991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$177
N/A
N/A
$177
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.43991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$174
N/A
N/A
$90
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.35991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$171
N/A
N/A
$171
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.45991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
$160
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.39991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
$148
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.19991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.37991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.49991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.41991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.33991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.17991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.27991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.23991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.25991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 16, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot prices, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 40 separate binary contracts at different price thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create settlement value mismatch. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT candle comparison; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average across 40 separate price-level contracts.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome is not directly comparable to Kalshi's 40 price-level contracts. Monitor Binance XRP/USDT and CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI separately. Arbitrage opportunities may exist if the two indices diverge at the resolution timestamp.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Single binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at March 16, 5 PM ET. Source: Binance XRP/USDT pair displayed at top of 1H chart.
  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each with a distinct price threshold (0.9999 to 1.7799). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its specific threshold. Source: CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.