TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET
Volume:
$4,570
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 16, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot prices, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 40 separate binary contracts at different price thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create settlement value mismatch. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT candle comparison; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average across 40 separate price-level contracts.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome is not directly comparable to Kalshi's 40 price-level contracts. Monitor Binance XRP/USDT and CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI separately. Arbitrage opportunities may exist if the two indices diverge at the resolution timestamp.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at March 16, 5 PM ET. Source: Binance XRP/USDT pair displayed at top of 1H chart.
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each with a distinct price threshold (0.9999 to 1.7799). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its specific threshold. Source: CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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