TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6PM ET

Volume:
$11,204

XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6PM ET

 - Polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 16, 2026

Closed: Mar 15, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.4 to 1.4199

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.42 to 1.4399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.38 to 1.3999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.9199999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.94 to 0.9599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.92 to 0.9399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.06 to 1.0799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.96 to 0.9799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.08 to 1.0999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.02 to 1.0399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.98 to 0.9999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1 to 1.0199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.04 to 1.0599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.34 to 1.3599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.1 to 1.1199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.3 to 1.3199

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.67991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.52 to 1.5399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.54 to 1.5599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.56 to 1.5799

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.64 to 1.6599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.58 to 1.5999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.18 to 1.1999

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.14 to 1.1599

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USDT price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on March 15, 2026 at 6 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance spot price comparison (open vs close), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' real-time index with discrete price band outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies: Polymarket uses Binance spot price binary comparison; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks index with 40 discrete price band outcomes. Timing differs by 1 hour (5 PM EDT vs 6 PM ET) and data sources are independent.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move together. Polymarket is a simple directional bet on Binance; Kalshi is a granular price-band bet on an external benchmark. Choose based on your data source confidence and preferred time window. Kalshi's 40 outcomes mean most price realizations resolve to No.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle at 6 PM ET. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for that candle. Data source: Binance official 1H chart display.
  • Kalshi: 40 discrete Yes/No outcomes based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average at 5 PM EDT (1 hour prior to Polymarket). Each outcome covers a 0.02 price band (e.g., 0.92000-0.9399, 1.00000-1.0199, etc.). Resolves Yes only if price falls within specified band; all other bands resolve No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.