TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6PM ET
Volume:
$11,204
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USDT price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on March 15, 2026 at 6 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance spot price comparison (open vs close), while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' real-time index with discrete price band outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct measurement methodologies: Polymarket uses Binance spot price binary comparison; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks index with 40 discrete price band outcomes. Timing differs by 1 hour (5 PM EDT vs 6 PM ET) and data sources are independent.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move together. Polymarket is a simple directional bet on Binance; Kalshi is a granular price-band bet on an external benchmark. Choose based on your data source confidence and preferred time window. Kalshi's 40 outcomes mean most price realizations resolve to No.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle at 6 PM ET. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for that candle. Data source: Binance official 1H chart display.
- Kalshi: 40 discrete Yes/No outcomes based on CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average at 5 PM EDT (1 hour prior to Polymarket). Each outcome covers a 0.02 price band (e.g., 0.92000-0.9399, 1.00000-1.0199, etc.). Resolves Yes only if price falls within specified band; all other bands resolve No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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