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406,065

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VS.

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XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will XRP close up or down on June 29 at 5PM ET?

Volume:
$20,934

$1.05991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.05991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,835
N/A
N/A
$1,104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,133
N/A
N/A
$1,814
Settled
Yes
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
$251
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,287
N/A
N/A
$4,310
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,347
N/A
N/A
$3,549
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.25991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$146
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$96
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.59991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.61991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.63991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.65991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.67991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.69991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.71991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.73991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.75991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.77991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.79991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.81991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.83991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.85991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.87991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down on June 29, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index with 40 different price thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison. Both aim to capture XRP directional movement but employ fundamentally different measurement methodologies and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible measurement methodologies and data sources. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index with absolute price thresholds; Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT candle open/close comparison. Resolution outcomes may diverge.Hero tip: Understand the fundamental difference: Kalshi resolves Yes if a 60-second average price exceeds 0.5999 (or any of 39 higher thresholds); Polymarket resolves Up only if the 1-hour candle close is >= open. A price can satisfy Kalshi's threshold without moving up intracandle on Binance, or vice versa. Traders must hedge or choose based on which measurement aligns with their directional thesis.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds any of 40 price thresholds (0.5999 to 1.3799). All thresholds trigger Yes; no explicit No condition provided. Uses proprietary CF Benchmarks index, not exchange spot price.
  • Polymarket: Resolves Up if Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open; resolves Down if close < open. Measures intracandle directional movement, not absolute price levels. Uses Binance spot market as sole authoritative source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price meets or exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect collective trader conviction about future price action, distinct from current spot prices. When this market shows strong odds favoring one direction, it suggests traders expect momentum or catalysts to push XRP beyond its present level. The gap between current spot and implied future price—embedded in the odds—represents the market's expected move. If odds are near 50-50, traders see genuine uncertainty; skewed odds signal confidence in a directional bias. These probabilities often diverge from technical analysis or sentiment indices because they carry real financial stakes, making them a forward-looking gauge of where informed participants believe XRP will trade.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which can create pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket attracts global retail traders and emphasizes AMM-based pricing, while Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange with order-book mechanics and a more institutional lean. Differences in fee structures, available leverage, and participant sophistication also influence how each platform prices XRP's directional move. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one venue lags the other, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays typically prevent perfect convergence. Monitoring both prices gives you a fuller picture of true market consensus.

Major catalysts for XRP include regulatory announcements affecting Ripple Labs, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin or Ethereum volatility, and developments in the SEC's ongoing litigation. Positive news on institutional adoption or partnerships could drive bullish momentum, while regulatory headwinds or broader crypto selloffs may pressure the price downward. On-chain metrics such as large wallet movements or exchange inflows can signal accumulation or distribution. Geopolitical events, Fed policy shifts, and competing stablecoin or CBDC announcements also ripple through crypto markets. Traders monitor these signals closely and adjust positions as new information emerges, causing odds to shift in real time.