TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET

Volume:
$15,132

$1.18 to 1.1999

 - Kalshi

$1.18 to 1.1999 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.18 to 1.1999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,133
N/A
N/A
$2,061
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.2 to 1.2199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,093
N/A
N/A
$4,439
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.22 to 1.2399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,876
N/A
N/A
$2,761
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.24 to 1.2599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,665
N/A
N/A
$2,665
Settled
No
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,836
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.16 to 1.1799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$435
N/A
N/A
$427
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.82 to 0.8399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.26 to 1.2799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.8199999 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.84 to 0.8599

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.86 to 0.8799

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.88 to 0.8999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.9 to 0.9199

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.92 to 0.9399

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.94 to 0.9599

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.96 to 0.9799

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.98 to 0.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1 to 1.0199

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.02 to 1.0399

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.04 to 1.0599

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.06 to 1.0799

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.08 to 1.0999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.1 to 1.1199

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.12 to 1.1399

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.14 to 1.1599

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 17, 2026. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome using different data sources and measurement methodologies: Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index across 40 discrete price bands, while Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot price open/close comparison.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct data sources (CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI vs. Binance XRP/USDT) and incompatible resolution methodologies (40 discrete price bands vs. open/close comparison) create settlement value mismatch risk. Kalshi's resolution logic also lacks an explicit NO condition, defining only YES outcomes across 40 bands.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi's YES outcomes cover specific price bands; Polymarket's UP/DOWN is a directional comparison. Verify which data source and time window applies to your position. Consider the possibility that Kalshi resolves YES while Polymarket resolves DOWN, or vice versa, depending on where the price lands relative to both the CF Benchmarks bands and the Binance open/close.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI at 5 PM EDT falls within one of 40 predefined bands (e.g., 0.82000-0.8399, 1.00000-1.0199, 1.56000-1.5799, or below 0.82000 / above 1.5799). No explicit NO outcome defined. Key Quote: 'simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves UP if Binance XRP/USDT 1H candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET; resolves DOWN otherwise. Resolution source is Binance spot data (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). Key Quote: 'close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) collected in the 60 seconds prior to 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range; if the average price falls within that range, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no data is available or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

The XRP price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether Ripple's token will trade higher or lower by a specific deadline. This dashboard displays the collective odds from both platforms, showing how prediction market participants are pricing the directional move. By tracking the same event across multiple venues, you gain insight into whether consensus is firm or split, and which outcome is favored at any given moment. The cross-platform view reveals market conviction and helps identify where the strongest trading activity is concentrated.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds on the same XRP price move due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences can also stem from how each platform's user base interprets the exact resolution criteria or timing. One venue may attract more retail traders while the other draws institutional flow, shifting the odds. Monitoring both prices helps you spot arbitrage opportunities and understand which platform's participants are more confident in their directional view.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting Ripple or the broader crypto sector, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin or Ethereum price swings that drag altcoins along, and any XRP-specific news around partnerships or litigation. Technical levels and support/resistance zones can also trigger rapid repricing as traders adjust their positions. Volatility spikes in traditional markets often ripple into crypto, shifting odds suddenly. Monitoring on-chain metrics, exchange inflows, and social sentiment can help you anticipate moves before they're fully priced into this market.