TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$67,945

$1.17991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.17991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 18, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.17991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,477
N/A
N/A
$5,889
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,791
N/A
N/A
$4,490
Settled
Yes
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,557
N/A
N/A
$2,342
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.21991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,782
N/A
N/A
$6,259
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.23991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,769
N/A
N/A
$5,018
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.19991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,028
N/A
N/A
$5,784
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.25991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,383
N/A
N/A
$4,274
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.27991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,261
N/A
N/A
$850
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.29991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,045
N/A
N/A
$1,045
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.31991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$303
N/A
N/A
$303
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.79991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.81991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.83991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.85991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.87991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.89991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.91991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.93991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.95991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 17, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 separate binary contracts, each tied to whether the 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index at 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold. Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing XRP/USD price at the end of the window versus the beginning, using Chainlink data.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ different data sources (CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI vs Chainlink XRP/USD), different measurement methodologies (60-second average at 5 PM EDT vs price comparison over 4-hour window), and different settlement logic (40 threshold-based contracts vs single directional contract). These differences create basis risk and prevent direct hedging.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket will resolve identically. Kalshi's 5 PM EDT snapshot may differ materially from Chainlink's 8 PM ET price. CF Benchmarks and Chainlink use different calculation and data aggregation methods. If you trade both platforms, monitor both data sources independently and be prepared for divergent outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each resolving YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (0.7999 to 1.5799). All contracts settle at the same measurement point: 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract resolving UP if XRP/USD price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00 PM ET, using Chainlink XRP/USD data stream. Measures directional price movement over the full 4-hour window. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) collected in the 60 seconds prior to 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; if the average price is above that threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no data is available or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real money at stake, making them a forward-looking gauge of trader conviction. Unlike spot price alone, which responds to immediate supply and demand, this market isolates a discrete time window and directional thesis. When odds diverge significantly from what spot-price technicians expect, it often signals either new information flowing into the prediction market or a mismatch between short-term momentum and longer-term sentiment. Comparing these odds to your own analysis of XRP fundamentals and technical levels can reveal edge in positioning.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which can create pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's order-book model and Polymarket's automated market maker design also process information at different speeds. Liquidity depth, geographic trader distribution, and platform-specific incentives all contribute to the spread. Savvy traders monitor both venues to spot arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which platform's community has stronger conviction on the outcome.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting XRP or the broader crypto market, macroeconomic data releases, Bitcoin volatility spikes, and Ripple-specific news such as litigation updates or partnership developments. Intraday technical breaks above or below key support and resistance levels often trigger rapid repricing as traders adjust their directional bets. Social media sentiment shifts, large exchange inflows or outflows, and shifts in stablecoin dominance can also influence short-term momentum. Monitoring these signals in real time helps traders anticipate moves before this market settles.