TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET

Volume:
$60,912

$1.25991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.25991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.25991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,060
N/A
N/A
$3,010
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.23991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,161
N/A
N/A
$2,635
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.19991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,430
N/A
N/A
$1,704
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.21991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,728
N/A
N/A
$951
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.17991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,307
N/A
N/A
$1,273
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,693
N/A
N/A
$1,532
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,266
N/A
N/A
$1,206
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,204
N/A
N/A
$507
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$975
N/A
N/A
$965
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$767
N/A
N/A
$767
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$567
N/A
N/A
$567
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.27991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,877
N/A
N/A
$3,609
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.31991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,500
N/A
N/A
$4,123
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.29991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,437
N/A
N/A
$4,008
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.35991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,725
N/A
N/A
$1,725
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.33991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,376
N/A
N/A
$1,358
Settled
No
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,372
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.69991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.71991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.73991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.75991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.77991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.79991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.81991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down on June 15, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index (60-second average before 5 PM EDT) with 40 different price thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle close versus open price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct data sources and measurement methodologies create settlement value mismatch. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index with 40 price thresholds (all Yes outcomes), while Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison (binary Up/Down).Hero tip: Kalshi and Polymarket are measuring different things. Kalshi has no explicit No outcome (all 40 conditions resolve to Yes if any threshold is breached), while Polymarket is a true binary. CF Benchmarks RTI (institutional index) may diverge from Binance spot price (retail exchange). If trading both platforms, treat them as separate markets and monitor both data sources independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI). Settlement value is the 60-second simple average of XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on June 15, 2026. Contains 40 conditions, all resolving to Yes if the average exceeds the specified threshold. No explicit No outcome or floor threshold defined. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance XRP/USDT pair. Settlement value is the open and close price of the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 15, 2026. Resolves to Up if close >= open, otherwise Down. Single binary outcome. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on June 15, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price meets or exceeds the designated strike level at exactly the specified time. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill collective trader conviction into a single probability, whereas spot prices reflect only the most recent transaction. This market's odds suggest traders assign a particular likelihood to upward movement, independent of current XRP spot levels. The divergence between odds and price often widens when news or volatility spikes, as prediction markets price in forward-looking sentiment while spot markets react to immediate supply and demand imbalances.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user demographics, which can create temporary price gaps on identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi may also differ in liquidity depth, settlement rules, and how they handle edge cases near the resolution window. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform-specific risks mean differences can persist, especially in lower-volume markets or during volatile periods.

Regulatory announcements affecting Ripple or cryptocurrency broadly can shift odds sharply, as can major macroeconomic data or shifts in risk appetite. Technical levels and support zones on XRP's chart often trigger algorithmic trading, amplifying moves near key thresholds. Insider developments at Ripple, SEC litigation updates, or broader crypto market rallies or selloffs will likely influence trader positioning as the resolution date approaches.