TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

Volume:
$12,977

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,061
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,156
N/A
N/A
$1,156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,004
N/A
N/A
$1,004
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$844
N/A
N/A
$322
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$524
N/A
N/A
$524
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,203
N/A
N/A
$1,805
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,198
N/A
N/A
$1,409
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.17991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,306
N/A
N/A
$1,306
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.19991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
$591
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.35991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
$90
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.69991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.71991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.73991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.75991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.77991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.79991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.81991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.83991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.85991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.87991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.89991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.91991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.93991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.95991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down on June 14, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with 40 separate price thresholds, all resolving to Yes if exceeded.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms use incompatible data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 40 threshold-based markets). Price movements that satisfy one platform's criteria may not satisfy the other.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve identically. Polymarket's binary Up/Down depends on Binance candle open/close; Kalshi's 40 markets each depend on whether a CF Benchmarks index average crosses a specific level. Exchange spreads, index composition, and timing can cause divergence. Treat these as separate bets requiring independent analysis.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 14. Single data source, single pair, single measurement window. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (0.6999, 0.7199, 0.7399, ... 1.4799). Uses institutional benchmark index, not spot exchange. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price meets or exceeds that threshold. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for XRP across major trading venues.

Frequently asked questions

The XRP price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing consensus on whether Ripple's token will trade higher or lower by a specific deadline. This dashboard displays real-time odds from both venues, letting you compare how each platform's participants are pricing the outcome. Cross-platform tracking reveals whether consensus is building around one direction or if meaningful disagreement exists between communities. Current aggregate volume and 24-hour activity show market engagement levels, helping traders gauge liquidity and conviction behind the competing outcomes.

Regulatory announcements—especially from the SEC or international bodies—historically drive XRP volatility and reshape trader expectations. Ripple company news, partnerships, or litigation updates can shift sentiment sharply. Broader crypto market moves, Bitcoin dominance swings, and macroeconomic data also influence altcoin direction. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows, whale transactions, and network activity may signal accumulation or distribution. Technical breakouts or support breaks can trigger momentum trades. Real-time news flow, social media trends, and analyst calls often precede price moves, giving early traders an edge in this market before resolution.