TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
XRP Up or Down - July 8, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will XRP be up or down on July 8 at 5PM ET?

Volume:
$2,516

XRP Up or Down - July 8, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

XRP Up or Down - July 8, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - July 8, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,745
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.08 to 1.0999

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
$267
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.06 to 1.0799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$146
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.1 to 1.1199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$157
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.7199999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.14 to 1.1599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.12 to 1.1399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.04 to 1.0599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.02 to 1.0399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.16 to 1.1799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.72 to 0.7399

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.74 to 0.7599

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.76 to 0.7799

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.78 to 0.7999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.8 to 0.8199

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.82 to 0.8399

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.84 to 0.8599

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.86 to 0.8799

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.88 to 0.8999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.9 to 0.9199

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.92 to 0.9399

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.94 to 0.9599

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.96 to 0.9799

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.98 to 0.9999

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1 to 1.0199

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD price moves up or down at a specific moment on July 8, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure XRP price direction using different data sources (Binance spot vs CF Benchmarks index), different time windows (1-hour candle vs 60-second average), and different resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs universal price-band capture). Outcomes may diverge if the two sources disagree on price movement or level.Hero tip: Polymarket is a true directional bet: Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Kalshi is a price-level capture market that always resolves Yes regardless of outcome. If trading both, understand you are not hedging identical risks. Monitor both Binance XRP/USDT and CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI in the hour leading to 5 PM ET on July 8, 2026 to anticipate divergence risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves Up if XRP/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle starting at 5 PM ET on July 8, 2026. Resolves Down if close < open. Source: Binance XRP/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Price-band capture market. Measures the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. All 40 price bands (from below 0.72000 to above 1.4799) resolve to Yes. This is not a directional Up/Down market; it always resolves Yes. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is [any price range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI over a 60-second window immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price band, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the averaged price falls. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill collective trader expectations into a single probability, whereas spot prices reflect only the most recent transaction. On this market, the implied odds represent what traders believe is the likelihood of XRP moving up versus down by the resolution deadline. If spot markets are pricing in volatility or uncertainty, prediction odds may lag or lead depending on information flow and trader conviction. Many traders use this market as a hedge against directional bets on exchanges, or as a standalone view of consensus sentiment when spot liquidity is thin or sentiment is mixed.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which can create temporary pricing gaps. Polymarket attracts global traders and often sees higher volume, while Kalshi serves primarily U.S. retail and institutional traders with different risk tolerances. Liquidity depth, order-book dynamics, and the timing of large trades can push odds apart. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but until capital flows between platforms, price discovery remains partially segmented. Monitoring both venues gives you a fuller picture of true market consensus.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting Ripple or the broader crypto sector, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin or Ethereum price moves that correlate with XRP, and company-specific news such as partnerships or litigation updates. Technical levels and support/resistance zones can also trigger momentum shifts if traders perceive breakout potential. Volatility spikes in traditional markets often ripple into crypto, reshaping odds quickly. Monitoring on-chain metrics, social sentiment, and institutional positioning helps traders anticipate directional shifts before they're priced in.