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406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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XRP Up or Down - July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will XRP be up or down on July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$9,462

$1.07991 or above

 - Kalshi

$1.07991 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,282
N/A
N/A
$1,019
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,076
N/A
N/A
$319
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$222
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.83991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$187
N/A
N/A
$187
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
$89
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$73
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.91991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.93991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.95991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,130
N/A
N/A
$1,867
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,387
N/A
N/A
$899
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,333
N/A
N/A
$899
Settled
No
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - July 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
$229
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.69991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.71991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.73991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.75991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.77991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.79991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.81991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.85991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.87991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.89991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on July 8, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 granular price-level outcomes tied to CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI index, while Polymarket offers a binary Up/Down outcome based on Chainlink's XRP/USD data stream.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different price indices (CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI vs. Chainlink XRP/USD), different measurement times (5 PM EDT snapshot vs. 4 PM–8 PM ET range comparison), and different resolution logic (absolute price thresholds vs. directional change). This creates a material risk that one market resolves Up while the other resolves to a different outcome.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi's outcome depends on whether the 60-second average at 5 PM exceeds specific thresholds; Polymarket's depends on whether 8 PM price >= 4 PM price. If you are long on one platform, consider the basis risk from the other. Monitor both CF Benchmarks and Chainlink feeds separately in the hours leading up to resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average measured before 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. Offers 40 discrete Yes outcomes for price thresholds from 0.6999 to 1.4799. If the average exceeds any threshold, that market resolves Yes; otherwise No. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Chainlink XRP/USD data stream, comparing price at 8 PM ET (end of window) to price at 4 PM ET (start of window). Resolves Up if end >= start, Down if end < start. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD_RTI over a 60-second window immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 8, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price meets or exceeds the stated criterion at exactly the specified time and date. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent trader bets on directional movement, not absolute price targets. When this market shows strong conviction toward one outcome, it typically reflects expectations about volatility, news catalysts, or technical levels during the trading window. Spot prices move continuously based on supply and demand, while prediction odds aggregate forward-looking sentiment at discrete intervals. A gap between market odds and current spot action often signals that traders expect a catalyst or shift in momentum before the resolution window closes. Comparing the two helps you distinguish between what the market is pricing now versus what traders expect to happen next.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which naturally creates pricing divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's order-book model may attract institutional traders seeking tighter spreads, while Polymarket's automated market maker design appeals to retail participants comfortable with wider bands. Liquidity depth, trading hours, and platform-specific incentives also influence how quickly each venue responds to new information. These differences are normal and create arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both markets simultaneously.

Regulatory announcements, SEC developments, or major partnership news involving Ripple can shift trader conviction sharply in either direction. Broader crypto market moves, Bitcoin volatility, or macroeconomic data releases during the trading window may also influence XRP's directional bias. Technical levels and support or resistance zones matter too; traders often position ahead of known price barriers. Social media sentiment, exchange inflows or outflows, and competing altcoin performance can add momentum. Monitoring financial news, on-chain metrics, and order-book depth on both platforms will help you spot early signals before the market reprices.