TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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XRP Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will XRP close up or down on July 11 at 5PM ET?

Volume:
$12,458

XRP Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

XRP Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

XRP Up or Down - July 11, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.09991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$715
N/A
N/A
$672
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.01991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$488
N/A
N/A
$488
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.05991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$320
N/A
N/A
$320
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.07991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
$275
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.99991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.91991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.93991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.95991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.97991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.89991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.03991 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1.11991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,445
N/A
N/A
$1,699
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.13991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,005
N/A
N/A
$1,965
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.17991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,433
N/A
N/A
$1,433
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.15991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,332
N/A
N/A
$1,332
Settled
No
kalshi

$1.23991 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
kalshi

$0.69991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.71991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.73991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.75991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.77991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.79991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.81991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$0.83991 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether XRP/USD price moves up or down at a specific moment on July 11, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' XRPUSD Real-Time Index with 29 discrete price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources, methodologies, and resolution granularity.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ distinct data sources (Binance XRP/USDT candle vs. CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI), different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and incompatible resolution structures (binary up/down vs. 29 price tiers). Price outcomes may diverge due to exchange-specific liquidity, index methodology, or timing misalignment.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with correlated but non-identical payoffs. Polymarket's binary outcome depends on Binance candle mechanics; Kalshi's outcome depends on CF Benchmarks index calculation. If you hold both, monitor the CF Benchmarks RTI feed and Binance candle data separately in the final 10 minutes. Price disagreement between sources is possible and will create winners and losers across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market (UP or DOWN) based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on July 11, 2026. Source: Binance official XRP/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 29 separate binary markets, each tied to a discrete price threshold of the CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI. Each market resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of the RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold (ranging from 0.6999 to 1.4799). Source: CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 11, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price meets or exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time and date. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

The XRP price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether XRP will move up or down by a specified deadline. This dashboard consolidates volume of $12,458 and 24-hour volume of $10,984 across both venues, giving you a unified view of how the crypto community is positioning itself. By monitoring the XRP price movement market, you can see which direction attracts more capital and conviction, helping you gauge market sentiment independent of spot price alone.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on an outcome, not just current price levels. Spot prices move on immediate supply and demand, while this market captures forward-looking sentiment about directional movement over a defined window. The odds here often diverge from technical analysis or news cycles because they embed real financial risk—traders must commit capital to their view. Comparing the two reveals whether the market expects momentum, mean reversion, or consolidation relative to today's quoted price.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting Ripple or XRP, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin or Ethereum price swings, and any Ripple company news or partnerships. Technical levels and support or resistance zones can trigger algorithmic trading and cascade moves. Broader crypto sentiment, stablecoin developments, and central bank policy statements also ripple through altcoin markets. Watch on-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale transactions, as these often precede directional breakouts that traders will price into this market in real time.