TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 5PM ET
Volume:
$36,579
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether XRP/USD will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on February 28, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance XRP/USDT spot prices, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) with multiple threshold-based conditions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot vs CF Benchmarks index) and incompatible resolution methodologies (single 1H candle comparison vs 40 independent threshold checks). The same XRP price movement could resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets. Polymarket is a directional bet on Binance XRP/USDT hourly movement. Kalshi's 40 markets are independent price-level bets on a different benchmark index. Verify which data source and methodology aligns with your trading thesis before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on Feb 28, 2026. Uses official Binance spot market data. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No markets, each with a different price threshold (0.9999 to 1.7799). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST exceeds its threshold. Uses CF Benchmarks index, not spot market. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EST is above [threshold]...'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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