TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the XRP/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks index), different measurement methodologies (binary comparison vs. 27 threshold-based markets), and different timing windows (1-hour candle finalization vs. 60-second average before 5 PM). This creates basis risk and potential for non-correlated outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve identically. Polymarket's outcome depends on whether Binance XRP/USDT close >= open for the 5 PM ET 1-hour candle. Kalshi's 27 outcomes depend on whether the CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average exceeds specific thresholds. Monitor both data sources independently. If you hold positions on both platforms, be aware they may diverge significantly, especially if Binance spot price and the CF index move in different directions or magnitudes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance XRP/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price, DOWN otherwise. Single outcome. Source: Binance XRP/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 27 separate threshold-based markets using CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI index. Each market resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of the index before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 0.9999 to 1.7799), NO otherwise. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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