TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket employ distinct data sources (CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI vs Chainlink XRP/USD), different settlement methodologies (absolute price levels at 5 PM EDT vs directional change 4:00–8:00 PM ET), and incompatible market structures (40 threshold-based markets vs 1 binary). Outcomes may diverge due to source disagreement, timing mismatch, or oracle variance.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Kalshi resolves at 5 PM EDT against CF Benchmarks; Polymarket resolves at 8 PM ET against Chainlink. Price movements between 5 PM and 8 PM ET, or discrepancies between the two data sources, can cause conflicting resolutions. Verify your position's exposure to each oracle independently.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 40 granular price-level markets. Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks XRPUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (0.9999, 1.0199, 1.0399, ... 1.7799). All settle at 5 PM EDT on Apr 27, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ripple-Dollar Real Time Index (XRPUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single binary Up/Down market. Resolves UP if XRP/USD price at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET, using Chainlink XRP/USD data stream. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream.'
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